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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (16986)	2/15/1998 11:02:00 AM
From: Area51	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

<<The Brent has declined from last 4 months from $21 to $14.85, I think we'll see it moving up to resistance of $17 and falling back to $12-13 level. .... freeing them from the clutches of Saddam, and in this scenario of mine, you will see pumping out 4-5 million barrels, that would really bring prices down to $12>>. Thanks for your big picture insights on the price of oil. I'm in the process of building a position in the drillers because I want some protection against future inflation, and also because I thought that the increasing worldwide demand (and the relatively constrained capacity of drilling rigs) provides a compelling investment story in it's own right. My understanding (mostly from Baird Soule on the strictly drilling thread) is that current OPEC output is about 28.4 million barrels per day (mbpd), and that the Iraqi infrastructure is in such disrepair that its probably several years to restore Iraqi capacity toward 4 mbpd and by that time increased world demand may have absorbed the excess supply. (I don't have current world demand # but US demand was 18.6 mbpd in January). Another factor which impacts is what is the current black market supply from Iraq which some have alleged is probably a significant portion of their current capacity. Therefore this from Lehman analyst Paul Chambers (2/12)made sense to me: Thinks perhaps 10-15% downside risk could still exist for oil service stocks over the next 3-5 months. He notes that since 1983 WTI oil prices have remained below $17 only 15% of the time, adding he believes that will remain true over the next 15 years as well. Earnings for the land drilling companies are the most exposed over the next six months followed by the integrated oil service companies, shallow-water drilling companies and companies tied to domestic E&P expenditures." Regards, Garry

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (16986)	2/15/1998 8:57:00 PM
From: SE	Respond to of 50167

Ike, I wish I could respond in a well thought out argument that covers the Y2K problem completely, however, I cannot. I don't know that much about it other than the potential horror stories that I have read in the papers. It appears to me however, that the sector is beginning to heat up and I was beginning to think about it a bit more because of that. I am between not really caring about it to thinking well, if they are correct, there are stocks that are going to explode. My thinking is that even if it is not as big a problem as it is laid out to be, then there still may be companies that do well. The four or five I am looking at are: ALYD IMRS CPWR CDO TPRO There is a universe of Y2K companies out there. My inclination would be to invest in those that have something besides Y2K in their portfolio...such as CPWR and CDO. Everyone is on the bandwagon and I believe about every company offers some type of remediation expertise, or so it seems. I asked an expert to come on this thread to discuss this topic and he referred me to the following indicating that they cover the topic in detail with links to all sorts of articles. 207.183.153.23 207.183.153.23 I wish I could offer more of a substantive opinion. If you do look into this at all I would be very interested in your thoughts. In the meantime, I enjoy your thoughts and appreciate your time spent. If I look into it further I will certainly come back here and offer my opinions. Thank you, -Scott