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To: TREND1 who wrote (28390)	2/15/1998 1:14:00 PM
From: phbolton	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

Larry: The real question about the disk and dram companies is when do they start being analyzed like the companies that make capacitors, power supplies and resistors? A commodity item is a commodity item. My guess (your #4) is that analysis of MU should be more like that of Exxon, Alcoa and the like rather than that of Intel.

To: TREND1 who wrote (28390)	2/15/1998 2:34:00 PM
From: Richard Russell	Respond to of 53903

>>(4) Or maybe SEG WDC MU know they are in a cycle buiness and current negative earnings will in time turn positive in the future as supply and demand again come into balance.<< In the future as supply and demand come into balance will the earnings be great enough to off set losses? Is there any reason to believe that as commoditys that are in an constant state of tech evolution(this means continued drain on earnings to keep up with changes) will have other then paper thin margins when smoothing out price fluctuations over time? Is there enough unquestionable growth to justify sustained high valuation for these type of companys. On the short run there will be sector rotation but IMO you must stay nimble. RR