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To: Greg B. who wrote (8542)2/15/1998 6:17:00 PM
From: GO*QCOM  Respond to of 152472
 
CDMA superior performance coupled with the huge economical changes brought about by the Asian buisness recession will no doubt put pressure on GSM vendors and there strategic objectives.The Asian-Pacfic markets were in a huge growth spiral in mobile communications consuming CDMA at an unbelivable rate.Korea is now in the position of being able to export CDMA around the world at prices that will even the playing field with GSM prices.Critical Mass Levels will be reached far sooner then expected for CDMA equitment.The developing telecom markets in Mexico.Brazil,Argentina will benfit from this new buisness picture of state of the art CDMA products at competive prices with GSM.The choice of which technology to use will fundamentally go to favor CDMA.Bottom line the economical tides of this change will put pressure on GSM heavy weights to purchase a Licence from QUALCOMM. Ericson plans for WCDMA and its agreement with ETSI for CDMA for the next generation is evidence of this beginning to occur.They are realizing that they need to get into the CDMA market in a big way to survive the momentum that Asian CDMA vendors as well as Japanese vendors licensed for CDMA are about export onto the world.Japan is about to expirence CDMA for them selves this spring-summer 1998.Europe is running out of capacity in there GSM networks in the big cities and Vodaphone is about to change things in the direction of CDMA AND over head is Globalstars first 4 satellites beaming CDMA down to QUALCOMM gateways.The picture is clearly of a Global CDMA enterprize unfolding with QUALCOMM as the pure play in CDMA IPR. Korea unable to develope an expansion to CDMA chip making will be consuming huge quanties of QUALCOMM ASIC's to be able to fulfill hand set orders.Question is will QUALCOMM take advantage of this globalization of its CDMA technology by building its own infrastructure and handset manufacturing and even possibly a foundry in Asia,South America,Mexico and Europe.They will need to do this if they are to participate in this burgeoning global market.Trade barriers also necessitate the opening of manufacturing in these countries to get around the close market system outside of NAFTA. QUALCOMM stands to gain big as all information finds CDMA as the freeway of choice to expand economies and advance the telephone infrastructure of the worlds populace.Just think where CDMA has gone since its introduction to the world in 1995.CHINA,ARGENTINA,ISRAEL,VIETNAM,HONG KONG,INDONESIA,PHILLAPINES,MOSCOW,INDIA,CANDA,CHILE,BRAZIL,KOREA,JAPAN,UNITED STATES.Beginning to sound like the CDMA olympics.Now Globalstar the sky is the limit. Just my thoughts on this fine Sunday afternoon. GO*QCOM



To: Greg B. who wrote (8542)2/15/1998 8:43:00 PM
From: Frank Byers  Respond to of 152472
 
The economics of CDMA over GSM infrastructure will be exposed this week in Cannes France during the GSM World Congress. Arthur Anderson led an impartial investigation into the economics of this approach for an existing GSM operator. I'll be attending one the Arthur Anderson session and can report back on the results. One preliminary paper stated that CDMA over GSM was not economical for new coverage but was economical for a capacity overlay network.

For existing GSM operators there are several questions to answer in order to see if a CDMA over GSM approach might be economical:

1. What is the chance the operator will get DCS 1800 spectrum, and how much? This would be the cheapest way to add capacity and has little in the way of uncertainty in the deployment.

2. When will dual mode CDMA/GSM handsets be available, in what form factor and as what price?

3. Who will supply the CDMA base stations and what GSM vendors will interface with the CDMA base stations? An existing operator will want to see a CDMA base station work with their existing BSC (base station controllers) and probably would not want to have to introduce a new BSC vendor into their network just to deploy the CDMA overlay.

4. How much spectrum will have to be cleared out (no GSM useage) and dedicated to CDMA? An operator will have to work the spreadsheets and the marketing predictions to see how painful it will be to introduce the CDMA overlay.

5. Will CDMA to GSM and vice versa handoffs be possible? You have to have this capability to avoid building CDMA coverage throughout your network. You'd only want to do CDMA in the high capacity areas, and then let your handset handoff to the GSM network as it drives out of the core area.

Some of these questions may be answered shortly, and positive answers will be critical to the acceptance of CDMA in GSM environments.

Will post when and if I get the information from the GSM World Congress.

FB