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Technology Stocks : FSII - The Worst is Over? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (1780)	2/15/1998 7:53:00 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Respond to of 2754

This is a follow-on to the table presented earlier today. This one compares last Friday's close with the highest closing price for each stock in 1995. Two of the stocks, CFMT and TRKN, I did not have enough data to make the comparison. The majority of the stocks have a way to go to reach the 1995 level they achieved. For those stocks not up to their 1995 highest price, the last column shows the percent gain required from last Friday's closing price to achieve their 1995 highest closing price. This shows that many stocks are a long way "underwater". The table also shows that only 9 of the 35 stocks compared are above their highest 1995 closing price. Sixteen (16) of the stocks have to gain over 100 percent to reach their highest 1995 closing price. GAIN 1995 02/13/98 RQ'D HIGHEST CLOSE PERCENT TO 1995 SYMBOL COMPANY PRICE PRICE CHANGE PERCENT CFMT CFM Technologies TRKN Trikon Technologies ETEC Etec System 9.17 47.13 414 PRIA Pri Automation 22.38 35.38 58 SFAM Speed Family 18.25 27.75 52 PLAB Phototronics 20.24 28.38 40 AMAT Applied Materials 29.56 37.50 27 COHU Cohu 35.75 44.94 26 ASYT Asyst Technologies 26.50 32.00 21 VECO Veeco Instruments 29.13 34.00 17 TER Teradyne 42.00 44.31 6 NVLS Novellus Systems 43.19 42.13 -2 3 KLAC KLA Instruments 46.91 45.00 -4 4 HELX Helix Technology 27.00 24.63 -9 10 NANO Nanometrics 10.13 9.00 -11 13 MICN Micrion 16.00 13.75 -14 16 IMSC Integrated Measurement Systems 16.50 13.63 -17 21 CMOS Credence Systems 40.25 29.00 -28 39 BRKS Brooks Automation 24.00 16.88 -30 42 KLIC Kulicke & Soffa Industries 44.38 27.25 -39 63 SVGI Silicon Valley Group 48.38 24.63 -49 96 UTEK Ultratech Stepper 46.75 22.63 -52 107 GSNX Gasonics 26.83 12.94 -52 107 WFR MEMC Electronic Materials 38.25 18.00 -53 113 WJ Watkins Johnson 56.25 26.13 -54 115 ASEC Aseco 21.88 10.00 -54 119 EGLS Electroglas 39.75 17.94 -55 122 LRCX Lam Research 71.75 28.94 -60 148 TGAL Tegal 13.88 5.50 -60 152 FSII FSI International 37.75 13.69 -64 176 SMTL Semitool 36.00 12.88 -64 180 LTXX LTX 14.00 5.00 -64 180 IPEC Integrated Process Equipment 54.50 16.75 -69 225 MTSN Mattson Technology 31.13 8.88 -71 251 PHTN Photon Dynamics 12.00 2.88 -76 317 GGNS Genus 16.75 2.88 -83 482 SUBM Submicron Systems 14.00 1.81 -87 673 TOTALS 1081 784 -27

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (1780)	2/16/1998 6:15:00 AM
From: rairden	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2754

Don: ...Just playing with some of your numbers... Average increase for the group was 23 percent (1995 high to 1997 high). That's if one bought 100 shares of each. Make it $1000 worth of each and you'd have a 40 percent increase, because for example you'd have more shares of Etec, and fewer shares Lam. I doubt there's a generalization to make here. I suspect the latter position is riskier since one holds more shares of lower priced issues. Consider MSFT vs AAPL, or INTC vs AMD. For those who prefer a buy-and-hold strategy, I took a look at Dollar-Cost averaging. Following your lead, I picked on UTEK. Buying $1000 of Utek on 1st of month Jan 95 thru Dec 97 (total investment of $36,000), eyeballing the charts, I get an accumulation of about 1440 shares, now worth $32587 at $22.63/share, for a 9.5 percent loss. (36000-32587) The same 1440 shares bought at 40 shares per month would have cost around $39700, giving an 18 percent loss. Well, I guess no surprises there. And pointing out the obvious, if you just bought the whole wad on Jan 2, 1995, you'd have a relatively acceptable 12 percent gain, but a mid-Sept 1995 purchase would be in that 26 percent hole right now. (Does anybody really dollar-cost average, other than in their 401k plans?) Thanks again for the weekly updates on your select 37!