SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: ggersh who wrote (201238)9/4/2023 11:09:01 PM
From: TobagoJack  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 218131
 
Dated article, from mid-August 2023

nytimes.com

Ukraine’s Forces and Firepower Are Misallocated, U.S. Officials Say

American strategists say Ukraine’s troops are too spread out and need to concentrate along the counteroffensive’s main front in the south.

Aug. 22, 2023


Ukrainian marines training in the Zaporizhzhia region before heading to the frontline. American officials say more Ukrainian forces should be near Zaporizhzhia and in the south of the country.David Guttenfelder for The New York Times

Ukraine’s grinding counteroffensive is struggling to break through entrenched Russian defenses in large part because it has too many troops, including some of its best combat units, in the wrong places, American and other Western officials say.

The main goal of the counteroffensive is to cut off Russian supply lines in southern Ukraine by severing the so-called land bridge between Russia and the occupied Crimean Peninsula. But instead of focusing on that, Ukrainian commanders have divided troops and firepower roughly equally between the east and the south, the U.S. officials said.

As a result, more Ukrainian forces are near Bakhmut and other cities in the east than are near Melitopol and Berdiansk in the south, both far more strategically significant fronts, officials say.

American planners have advised Ukraine to concentrate on the front driving toward Melitopol, Kyiv’s top priority, and on punching through Russian minefields and other defenses, even if the Ukrainians lose more soldiers and equipment in the process.

Only with a change of tactics and a dramatic move can the tempo of the counteroffensive change, said one U.S. official, who like the other half a dozen Western officials interviewed for this article spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations.

Another U.S. official said the Ukrainians were too spread out and needed to consolidate their combat power in one place.

Nearly three months into the counteroffensive, the Ukrainians may be taking the advice to heart, especially as casualties continue to mount and Russia still holds an edge in troops and equipment.

In a video teleconference on Aug. 10, Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff; his British counterpart, Adm. Sir Tony Radakin; and Gen. Christopher Cavoli, the top U.S. commander in Europe, urged Ukraine’s most senior military commander, Gen. Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, to focus on one main front. And, according to two officials briefed on the call, General Zaluzhnyi agreed.



Adm. Sir Tony Radakin of Britain has developed close ties with his Ukrainian counterparts during multiple trips to the country.Pool photo by Andrew Milligan

Admiral Radakin’s role has been especially important and not widely appreciated until now, the officials said. General Milley speaks to General Zaluzhnyi every week or so about strategy and Ukrainian military needs. But the Biden administration has prohibited senior U.S. officers from visiting Ukraine for security reasons and to avoid increasing tensions with Moscow. Britain, however, has imposed no such constraints, and Admiral Radakin, a polished officer who served three tours in Iraq, has developed close ties with his Ukrainian counterpart during multiple trips to the country.

American officials say there are indications that Ukraine has started to shift some of its more seasoned combat forces from the east to the south. But even the most experienced units have been reconstituted a number of times after taking heavy casualties. These units rely on a shrinking cadre of senior commanders. Some platoons are mostly staffed by soldiers who have been wounded and returned to fight.

Ukraine has penetrated at least one layer of Russian defenses in the south in recent days and is increasing the pressure, U.S. and Ukrainian officials said. It is close to taking control of Robotyne, a village in the south that is near the next line of Russian defenses. Taking the village, American officials said, would be a good sign.

A spokesman for the Ukrainian military did not respond to text messages or phone calls on Tuesday.

But some analysts say the progress may be too little too late. The fighting is taking place on mostly flat, unforgiving terrain, which favors the defenders. The Russians are battling from concealed positions that Ukrainian soldiers often see only when they are feet away. Hours after Ukrainians clear a field of mines, the Russians sometimes fire another rocket that disperses more of them at the same location.

Under American war doctrine, there is always a main effort to ensure that maximum resources go to a single front, even if supporting forces are fighting in other areas to hedge against failure or spread-out enemy defenses.

But Ukraine and Russia fight under old Soviet Communist doctrine, which seeks to minimize rivalries among factions of the army by providing equal amounts of manpower and equipment across commands. Both armies have failed to prioritize their most important objectives, officials say.



Valentyna Kovalova’s son, a Ukrainian officer, was killed in combat in the southern frontline with Russia.Finbarr O'Reilly for The New York Times

Ukraine’s continued focus on Bakhmut, the scene of one of the bloodiest battles of the war, has perplexed U.S. intelligence and military officials. Ukraine has invested huge amounts of resources in defending the surrounding Donbas region, and Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, does not want to appear as though he is giving up on trying to retake lost territory. But U.S. officials say politics must, at least temporarily, take a back seat to sound military strategy.

American strategists say that keeping a small force near the destroyed city is justified to pin down Russian troops and prevent them from using it as a base for attack. But Ukraine has enough troops there to try to retake the area, a move that U.S. officials say would lead to large numbers of losses for little strategic gain.

American officials have told Ukrainian leaders that they can secure the land around Bakhmut with far fewer troops and should reallocate forces to targets in the south.

Ukrainian leaders have defended their strategy and distribution of forces, saying they are fighting effectively in both the east and the south. The large number of troops is necessary to pressure Bakhmut and to defend against concerted Russian attacks in the country’s northeast, they say. Ukrainian commanders are competing for resources and have their own ideas of where they can succeed.

American officials’ criticisms of Ukraine’s counteroffensive are often cast through the lens of a generation of military officers who have never experienced a war of this scale and intensity.

Moreover, American war doctrine has never been tested in an environment like Ukraine’s, where Russian electronic warfare jams communications and GPS, and neither military has been able to achieve air superiority.

American officials said Ukraine has another month to six weeks before rainy conditions force a pause in the counteroffensive. Already in August, Ukraine has postponed at least one offensive drive because of rain.

“Terrain conditions are always fundamental drivers” of military operations, General Milley said in an interview with reporters on Sunday. “Fall and spring are not optimal for combined arms operations.”



Members of the Third Separate Assault Brigade in Bakhmut last month. Ukraine’s continued focus on Bakhmut, the scene of one of the bloodiest battles of the war, has perplexed U.S. intelligence and military officials.Tyler Hicks/The New York Times

Wet weather will not stop the fighting, but if Ukraine breaks through Russian lines in the coming weeks, the mud could make it more difficult to capitalize on that success and quickly seize a wide swath of territory, officials said.

More important than the weather, some analysts say, is that Ukraine’s main assault forces may run out of steam by mid- to late September. About a month ago, Ukraine rotated in a second wave of troops to replace an initial force that failed to break through Russian defenses.

Ukraine also shifted its battlefield tactics then, returning to its old ways of wearing down Russian forces with artillery and long-range missiles instead of plunging into minefields under fire. In recent days, Ukraine has started tapping into its last strategic reserves — air mobile brigades intended to exploit any breakthrough. While fighting could continue for months, U.S. and other Western officials say Ukraine’s counteroffensive would not have enough decisive firepower to reclaim much of the 20 percent of the country that Russia occupies.

U.S. officials say they do not believe the counteroffensive is doomed to failure but acknowledge that the Ukrainians have not had the success that they or their allies hoped for when the push began.

“We do not assess that the conflict is a stalemate,” Jake Sullivan, the White House’s national security adviser, said on Tuesday. “We continue to support Ukraine in its effort to take territory as part of this counteroffensive, and we are seeing it continue to take territory on a methodical systematic basis.”

While a smaller, dug-in Russian force has performed better in the south than American officials and analysts anticipated, the Kremlin still has systemic problems. Russian troops suffer from poor supply lines, low morale and bad logistics, a senior U.S. military official said.

But Russia is keeping with its traditional way of fighting land wars in Europe: performing poorly in the opening months or years before adapting and persevering as the fighting drags on.

By contrast, Ukrainian troops, in launching the counteroffensive, have the steeper hill to climb, the official said. It took them more than two months — rather than the week or so that officials initially thought — to get through the initial Russian defenses.

Several U.S. officials said they expect Ukraine to make it about halfway to the Sea of Azov by winter, when cold weather may dictate another pause in the fighting. The senior U.S. official said that would be a “partial success.” Some analysts say the counteroffensive will fall short of even that more limited goal.

Even if the counteroffensive fails to reach the coast, officials and analysts say if it can make it far enough to put the coastal road within range of Ukrainian artillery and other strikes, it could cause even more problems for Russian forces in the south who depend on that route for supplies.

Speaking to reporters on a flight to Rome on Sunday, General Milley said the past two months of the counteroffensive have been “long, bloody and slow.”

“It’s taken longer than Ukraine had planned,” he said. “But they are making limited progress.”

Zolan Kanno-Youngs contributed reporting.

Eric Schmitt is a senior writer who has traveled the world covering terrorism and national security. He was also the Pentagon correspondent. A member of the Times staff since 1983, he has shared four Pulitzer Prizes. More about Eric Schmitt

Julian E. Barnes is a national security reporter based in Washington, covering the intelligence agencies. Before joining The Times in 2018, he wrote about security matters for The Wall Street Journal. More about Julian E. Barnes

Helene Cooper is a Pentagon correspondent. She was previously an editor, diplomatic correspondent and White House correspondent, and was part of the team awarded the 2015 Pulitzer Prize for International Reporting, for its coverage of the Ebola epidemic. More about Helene Cooper

A version of this article appears in print on Aug. 23, 2023, Section A, Page 1 of the New York edition with the headline: Troop Positions Preventing Gains By Kyiv, U.S. Says. Order Reprints | Today’s Paper | Subscribe

Sent from my iPad



To: ggersh who wrote (201238)9/4/2023 11:15:52 PM
From: TobagoJack  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 218131
 
Article less dated, from 2 days ago

nytimes.com

A Brutal Path Forward, Village by Village

As Ukraine pushes slowly forward in its counteroffensive, it’s relying heavily on the effort of hundreds of small-scale assault groups, each tasked with attacking a single trench, tree line or house.

Sept. 2, 2023


Ukrainian soldiers fire a howitzer at targets in the direction of Bakhmut on the eastern front line on Monday.

By Marc Santora
Photographs by Tyler Hicks

Marc Santora and Tyler Hicks spent time with units of Ukrainian Marines on the southern front.

The mission for the Ukrainian unit was to take a single house, in a village that is only a speck on the map but was serving as a stronghold for Russian soldiers.

Andriy, a veteran marine, had waited for three days with his small assault team — none of whom had seen combat before — as other Ukrainian units crawled through minefields, stormed trenches and cleared a path to the farming village of Urozhaine. Finally, one day last month, the order came to move.

They raced to a predetermined location in an armored personnel carrier, and disembarked as explosions and gunfire rattled the ground beneath their feet, Andriy and members of his unit said. Driving out or killing the remaining Russians, they secured the house as night fell, posting guards and reviewing the day’s tactics to see how they might improve.

In the morning, the new order came: Take another house.

The monthslong campaign to breach heavily fortified Russian lines is being conducted in many domains and in many forms of battle, with artillery duels and drone strikes across the breadth of the front in southern Ukraine. But the engine driving the effort are hundreds of small-scale assault groups, often just eight to 10 soldiers, each tasked with attacking a single trench, tree line or house.

In this tactical approach, small villages loom large. They line paved roads, facilitating transport, and the buildings, even those ravaged by shelling, provide a measure of cover. The Russians are using them as strongholds; Urozhaine, for instance, was ringed by two trench lines and a maze of tunnels that allowed Russian troops to shoot in one location, then pop up somewhere else.

Daily success is measured in yards rather than miles. But dozens of these assaults have been raging daily for weeks and, taken together, they are adding up to gains that Ukraine says will pose increasing problems for overstretched Russian forces.


Ukrainian marines practice house-to-house combat during training exercises in the region of Vuhledar in August.


A Ukrainian soldier at an artillery position in the Bakhmut region.

It’s a hard way to fight a war — village by village, house by house — with no guarantee of success. Once taken and secured, however, the surviving Russian fortifications provide a base for the Ukrainians to plot their next move forward.

This has been the pattern for Ukraine as it tries to move along two north-south routes toward the Sea of Azov, looking for a place to break through and sever the so-called land bridge between Russia and occupied Crimea.

To the West, Ukrainian forces have been pushing on the path that leads toward Melitopol; having secured the key village of Robotyne, they were fighting fiercely this week at the village of Verbove, the next step in the advance. On Friday, the Ukrainian military said it had pushed three and a half miles beyond Robotyne, and John Kirby, the White House National Security Council spokesman, said Ukraine had made “notable progress” in the preceding 72 hours.

Urozhaine lies on a route farther east, along a small rural road that leads to Mariupol on the southern coast.

The battle over the village would last nine days, with the Russians finally retreating on Aug. 19 under a hail of Ukrainian artillery fire. It was a small but necessary step. As with Robotyne, securing it meant Ukraine’s forces had broken through the Russians’ first layer of defenses. Just as importantly, they have now held it for two weeks.

There are still some 60 miles of hard road ahead for the Ukrainians before they can reach the coast, and at least one more heavily fortified Russian defensive line in their way. The Russians are resisting fiercely, protected by entrenched positions, minefields and air superiority. The marines expect the fight to be bloody and slow.

“Russians have more artillery, more tanks, more drones, and more people,” said a veteran marine named Denis. “And they also fortify very well — whenever they get to somewhere — be it a settlement, a forest belt, or just a field.”



Ukrainian Marines during training exercises in the south. There are many newly trained recruits joining the war effort.



A Marine runs during training exercises. The path forward on the counteroffensive has been grueling.

The Ukrainians allowed a team from The New York Times to visit marines fighting on the road to Mariupol on multiple occasions over two weeks in August, on the condition that the journalists not reveal precise locations, soldiers’ full names and ranks, and certain operational details.

In more than a dozen interviews in recent days, troops engaged in combat voiced great confidence that they can break the Russian lines.

“After the first and the second lines there will be the straight way toward the sea, no more fortifications,” said Maksym, another veteran marine who fought in Urozhaine. “We will move like rockets.”

The marines are fighting on a line that runs south along the T0158, a rural road that winds its way through the Mokri Yali River Valley, where Ukrainians have retaken a series of villages since launching their counteroffensive in June. The next major assault target is Staromlynivka, about 12 miles from where the campaign began.

The Russians are racing in reinforcements to try and stop the advance, Ukrainian soldiers said.

Their description of the battle at Urozhaine was supported by unedited Ukrainian drone footage viewed by The Times. Key details also corresponded with accounts posted on social media by Russian soldiers and bloggers.



Ukrainian soldiers with a resupply of artillery for their 122-millimeter howitzer in the Bakhmut region.



Ukrainian soldier looking for a drone overhead that they can hear.

Before attacking Russians in a village, Ukrainians fight to control the elevated positions on the flanks, hoping to make the Russian positions untenable and limit the house-to-house fighting.

Each settlement presents many of the same challenges, so the marines map out each assault and drill as much as they can before launching an attack.

“The most important thing is to hold the first street,” Denis said. “Then we send an additional drone that looks at each building. Our soldiers are divided into two groups: the fire group and the maneuver group. The fire group shoots Russians hiding on different floors of the building and then the maneuver group clears it. This is how we move house after house.”

If the assault fails, he said, they call in artillery strikes and destroy the house.

The Russians are also adapting, the marines said, including using new tactics to make the already treacherous minefields even more lethal.

They will lace a pasture filled with mines with a flammable agent, for instance. Once the Ukrainians get to work clearing an opening, the Russians will drop a grenade from a drone, igniting a sea of fire and explosions.

The mining makes control over paved roads essential; they are the safest routes because mines are easier to spot and remove. The Russians know this and have set up defenses along the T0158, with concrete bunkers for machine gunners. Russian drones keep the roads under constant surveillance.

As Denis spoke a few miles from the line of contact, a unit was practicing an assault on a house. There is no shortage of battered buildings to run such drills, so they move locations often.



Ukrainian marines during exercises. The military does not have the luxury of a lot of time for training.



Marines of the Ukrainian Armed Forces during training exercises in the region of Vuhledar.

But Russian drones picked up the gathering of soldiers and fired rockets at them. The soldiers heard the whistle of the incoming rockets and had seconds to dive for cover. They scattered as the Russians unleashed another salvo. A hail of rockets crashed around the marines, but no one was injured.

A few days later, another group was preparing for their next assault along the road to Mariupol. They were among a recent influx of Marines who had completed training in Britain but had yet to experience combat.

A trainer named Vasyl, 53, was running the drills, barking orders as the new soldiers fired live rounds and rocket-propelled grenades for the first time. Time is a luxury they do not have as battles rage, he said, “so we do our best to get them ready as soon as possible.”

A key part of forming a successful assault unit, the soldiers said, was finding the most motivated recruits willing to race into a cauldron of destruction.

Like other Ukrainian outfits, the marines are composed of a mix of career fighters, volunteers and mobilized conscripts. About 70 percent come from the local area — including the occupied city of Mariupol — and soldiers believe that gives them a distinct advantage over an enemy they view as fighting for a paycheck, and holding positions out of fear of punishment for retreating.

As experienced soldiers, Andriy and Maksym, both 35, guided the new recruits.

“Of course we had some losses, not within our platoon, but within the brigade,” Maksym said. “It’s war, you know.”

Still, the marines achieved their objective in Urozhaine and were one small step closer to the sea.

“It’s also important for self-confidence and motivation,” Maksym said. “Many of the guys were new, it was their first fight. And now they know how it is.”



Marines practice carrying a wounded comrade during training exercises in the region of Vuhledar.
Gaëlle Girbes and Dimitry Yatsenko contributed reporting from the front line.

Marc Santora has been reporting from Ukraine since the beginning of the war with Russia. He was previously based in London as an international news editor focused on breaking news events and earlier the bureau chief for East and Central Europe, based in Warsaw. He has also reported extensively from Iraq and Africa. More about Marc Santora

Tyler Hicks is a senior photographer for The Times. In 2014, he won the Pulitzer Prize for Breaking News Photography for his coverage of the Westgate Mall massacre in Nairobi, Kenya. More about Tyler Hicks

Sent from my iPad



To: ggersh who wrote (201238)9/5/2023 3:54:23 AM
From: TobagoJack2 Recommendations

Recommended By
ggersh
Pogeu Mahone

  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 218131
 
Have been in the hospital for the last 24 hours, to give the trusty Volvo a once over. They did something to me this morning, 7 hours ago, disgustingly, as in something down my gullet and some other thing up my … well, never mind, just taking a look-see, clipping anything they see that does not belong, and to pronounce me good-good, in the former case good-forever, and in the latter case good for another 5 years. Something about peace of mind.

Cannot say I enjoyed the guzzling of ‘flavoured’ drink last night, quite a bit of it, and the starvation 24-hours prior. Am taking delight in my first in 42-years that lovely American innovation known as Chicken-ala-King, accompanied by super-yummy ‘flavoured’ drink called iced lemon tea

Now just waiting for the doc to take time out of his busy schedule to tell me all-good and then am out of here, even though the ‘here’ food is just super and menu is per size of a coffee table magazine.