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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LLCF who wrote (4862)	2/15/1998 10:47:00 PM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

David, > how about some ideas on how to profit if Asia falls > behind because they DON'T continue (or perhaps delay) > building new fabs???? Simple answer: buy MU, they will make a ***load of money. More general answer: buy US semi-manufacturers with commodity products who also have leading-edge fabs. I am on unfamiliar ground here, but you could investigate AMD, NSM, TXN, LSI, IDTI, MOT, CY. Try to avoid INTC competitors. You can ask Andrew Vance for a better list. ;-) Tangential answer: buy WFR and SEG. They may* benefit from Asian fab closures. Personally, I will not play this angle. I hold some WFR leaps that I plan to dispose of when time is ripe. ;-))) Good luck Jurgis

To: LLCF who wrote (4862)	2/16/1998 11:10:00 PM
From: Jerome	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

D.A.K.,I'm not sure about profiting if Asia is unable to build more fabs. But a good choice to at least to break even and possibly come out ahead is ASYST. Almost no (significant) SEA Exposure. C.E.O. predicted a good quarter at last conference call. Asyst's technology is being incorporated in all US and European new facilities. Significant stock price appreciation in the last ten days with no news to warrant it. Lighten up on AMAT (or swap some AMAT shares for some of ASYT). My second choice would be KLIC. If Indonesia falls apart as others have suggested (I believe this could happen) then here is a possible senario. Japanese banks will be further constrained to make any loans to anyone else in SEA no matter how good the credit rating. So Fab construction in SEA will come to a prolonged halt. (Who ever said that cash was trash wasn't talking about Korea or Indonesia) The next phase would be for the European countries to jump on Fab construction with both feet. This is the opportunity they have been waiting for. If the Europeans want be be major players in the chip industry now is their chance, because the Asians will be in no position to be competative for some time. The chief beneficiaries of this senario will be companies like AMAT, KLIC, ASYT, NVLS, KLAC. This is just my personal opinion and this senario deserves just as much air time (HOT) as any other that I have read about on this thread. Sincerely, Jerome