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To: Knighty Tin who wrote (28447)	2/15/1998 10:46:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Respond to of 53903

Mike, the BTB is not an indicator of profitability, it indicates whether the sector's sales are growing or declining over the near term. This sector was "trained" to think that the troughing of the BTB signals better earnings a quarter or two down the road. In anticipation of a through in the BTB, I can see some people laying bets on the segment. The reason I am not bullish is that the overcapacity problems have not been resolved. Resolution could be rationally expected if some capacity is closed down and if (a big if) Japan finally undertakes a stimulative policy to increase domestic demand and soak the residual oversupply not dealt with by the closing. Maybe a decline of the Nikkei below 14,000 will wake up the Japanese and get them to do what is good for them,selves, the rim and the rest of the world. Zeev