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Strategies & Market Trends : ajtj's Post-Lobotomy Market Charts and Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Ox who wrote (81147)	9/7/2023 10:53:58 AM
From: Sun Tzu	1 Recommendation Recommended By The Ox Respond to of 98212

Bank indexes are very context sensitive because they are well understood. There are no growth stories or drug discoveries or new fads for them. The economic cycle is all there is to them. So what are the contexts? Your basic 4 phases of economic cycle + the occasional financial crisis. Based on that, I think KBWB would be a buy from low 30s to mid 20s. And I agree with you that it may not go much lower from here (at least on the short term). All I want out of it is another 5% - 10% down side, retesting or coming close to the earlier lows. I will take profits as soon as it looks like it may turn around.

To: The Ox who wrote (81147)	9/7/2023 11:02:10 AM
From: Sun Tzu	1 Recommendation Recommended By The Ox Respond to of 98212

KBWB full economic cycle chart 37ish is not unreasonable, but that may take a bit of time.

To: The Ox who wrote (81147)	9/9/2023 1:00:50 PM
From: Sun Tzu	Respond to of 98212

I am completely open to reversing my bank short position, but... 1/11 Banks are in a pretty bad spot when considering the unrealized losses on securities at FDIC-insured commercial banks rose +$42.9bn to $558.4bn in 2Q23 (+8% QoQ), following two consecutive months of declines. Stated differently, of the $5.089tn in total securities held by commercial banks, 10.972% of them have unrealized losses (keep in mind, it was uninsured depositors figuring out SVB had $15.2bn of unrealized losses on its held-to-maturity ["HTM"] bonds, or 16.7% of the $91bn carrying value, that caused a run on that bank). In short,... 1/11 Banks are in a pretty bad spot when considering the unrealized losses on securities at FDIC-insured commercial banks rose +$42.9bn to $558.4bn in 2Q23 (+8% QoQ), following two consecutive months of declines. Stated differently, of the $5.089tn in total securities held by... pic.twitter.com/TdnTtkVxg2 — Gordon Johnson (@GordonJohnson19) September 9, 2023