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Technology Stocks : Ascend Communications (ASND) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gary Korn who wrote (35023)	2/16/1998 1:51:00 AM
From: Dennis R. Duke	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 61433

Brought to you by request of one of the better Yahoo posters via Dennis Mail. Subj: Remington - ASND @ options expiration By: mcammarata Date: Feb 15 1998 8:13 P.M PST Reply To: Msg. 7229 by Remington__1100 Remington, (rifle or razor?) I did not suggest that ASND would be stuck below 35 for all of this upcoming week. I did however speculate whether we will close on Friday 2/20/98 +/- 3/8ths around 35 a share. You point out that momentum is up and this traditionally has been a momentum stock. You are looking for 37-38 by the end of the week. Well, I've given some very detailed talks about option expiration pressure(gravitational pull), we do this month after month. After consulting my historical price quotes for ASND, I have come to some very interesting conclusions. First, the data: 2/21/97---59.75 3/21/97---49.375 4/18/97---40.25 5/16/97---47.5 (obvious exception) 6/27/97---40.0625 7/18/97---50.0625 8/15/97---45.4375 9/19/97---36 (exception) 10/21/97-34.9375 11/21/97-25.375 12/19/97-27.3125 (exception) 1/16/98---30.0625 These are the closing prices for ASND on the last 12 options expirations, notice the pattern of strike prices. Now, let's look at the delta between the closing price and the nearest strike point: 2/21/97---0.25 3/21/97---0.625 4/18/97---0.25 5/16/97---2.5 (exception) 6/27/97---0.0625 7/18/97---0.0625 8/15/97---0.4375 9/19/97---1 (exception) 10/21/97---0.0625 11/21/97---0.375 12/19/97---2.3125 (exception) 1/16/98---0.0625 Now, if you average the deltas from all of the last 12 options expiration closing prices, you get (no joke)=0.66666666666 or approximately 5/8ths. If you throw out the exceptional data points, (3 of 12) you get an average delta of 0.243 or about 1/4 of a point. Given this data, I'll just say that it will most likely end within 5/8ths of a strike point (probably closer). Since we are currently at 34.875 I would suggest that strike point would be 35, therefore my range would be 34.375 to 35.625 for 2/20/98. Obviously the options pull is a weak force and REAL NEWS or overall MARKET ACTIVITY will call the shots and I have no more predictive power than your family pet, but given the historical data I would not bet my life on ASND closing 2/20/98 between 37-38. Notice the exceptional data points only occurred 25% of the time. Maybe someone can provide us with more complete data? Later Mike Cammarata Again via Dennis mail....