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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: T J Krueger who wrote (3416)	2/15/1998 11:55:00 PM
From: Ken Brown	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42834

>>withdrawal from that particular fund MUST be in WRITING<< Tim, I'm pretty sure I've heard Bob asked that question a time or two, and he's responded that if you use overnight mail, there's only a one day delay. (Of course, if that day happens to be a -25% .... ;-) OTOH, I don't remember him mentioning that subscribers would get a sell signal via overnight mail. If you're right (& I have no reason to doubt it), then that alone is worth the money to me. Thanks, Ken

To: T J Krueger who wrote (3416)	2/16/1998 12:30:00 AM
From: Alan Bell	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42834

On previous shows BB has discussed this issue. He has suggested using overnight mail to send them the redemption request. He has also suggested selling short or buying put options. If one had a marginable brokerage account, one could sell SPY short the instant the signal was received. This could offset a long position in VTSMX. But I suspect we will have a reasonable amount of warning (ie. 1 week or more.) The indicators that make up his model are economic, sentiment, valuation, monetary indicators. These may change significantly on a monthly basis but not on a daily basis. My real concern is whether his sell signal will trigger a market sell-off. -- Alan P.S. Of course, if this group continues to provide "relentless trashing" of his successful and brilliant financial presentation, he is likely to start golfing full time before the sell signal ever arrives.

To: T J Krueger who wrote (3416)	2/16/1998 8:53:00 AM
From: gusher	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42834

In a personal account you would be permitted to make a telephone redemption from VTSMX unless you specifically blocked that function when you completed your account application. Exchanges are prohibited but they'll happily mail you a check for the proceeds of your sale.

To: T J Krueger who wrote (3416)	2/16/1998 12:21:00 PM
From: Rock Fish	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42834

>With regard to Bob's Active/Passive portfolio with >75% invested in Vanguard's Total Stock Market Index >- unless I'm mistaken a withdrawal from that particular >fund MUST be in WRITING; therefore, how would one take >advantage of a buy signal if there were to be one? >It seems to me that by the time a letter would reach >Vanguard the market could have already plummeted. Has >anyone thought of this? And he does seem to be >advocating that particular fund, along with the Vanguard >Index fund more and more. Do you mean withdrawal on a sell signal? I doubt that Bob (or anybody) can predict the kind of "crash" that occured in 1987. I would suspect that his sell signal would be issued when his model indicates a probable bear market. This scenario would likely allow people several days to exit the market before a significant downturn. For example, It is unlikely that his indicators would go south on Monday followed by a crash on Tues or Weds. What I am more interested in is the long-term prediction related to any sell signal. Being a long-term investor, I would prefer to ride out a relatively short bear market. In other words I want to ignore a sell signal that forecasts a 1 year bear market, but I might sell on a signal that forecasts a 5 year bear market. -- Rock Fish

To: T J Krueger who wrote (3416)	2/16/1998 5:06:00 PM
From: Tim Bagwell	Respond to of 42834

T.J. <<unless I'm mistaken a withdrawal from that particular fund MUST be in WRITING; therefore, how would one take advantage of a buy signal if there were to be one? It seems to me that by the time a letter would reach Vanguard the market could have already plummeted>> Bob has addressed this issue before and I believe his response was to use an overnight delivery service to issue your sell order to Vanguard. If you have to respond in writing there is little else you can do about it. Another possibility is to hedge by shorting SPY real time but this could be risky and has a commission cost. Still, it could be used as insurance. This is especially noteworthy since I believe that the funds do not have to perform your transaction immediately. If Vanguard gets hit with a bunch of sell orders then it could take them several days to liquidate depending on their running cash flow. Yet another possibility is to hold VTSMX in a brokerage account like Schwab and let them handle the transaction for you. There will be a commission on Vanguard funds but it might be worth it to you. Schwab has the Schwab 1000 fund which is not the same as VTSMX but the performance tracks pretty well. This one you can trade in a Schwab account with no commission. Expense ratio is a little higher also but still a reasonable amount.