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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Getcher who wrote (16999)	2/16/1998 9:36:00 PM
From: Area51	Respond to of 50167

Hi Getcher, Ike may very be correct about oil decreasing to $12 - $13. I think I may have miscalculated the impact of all the Asian devaluations on world demand. Although oil looks cheap here, if you're sitting in Korea, Thailand or Indonesia it probably looks expensive. I think I'll extend the time it takes to build my position in the drillers. I would expect to see $40 plus oil within 10 years, and a lot more drilling required to maintain the current levels of supply. I still want to build a position in the drillers, I just think if I'm patient I can get better entry prices. hubbertpeak.com has some interesting information on projected demand, reserves and discoveries. I remember seeing a graph of the price of the Dow versus the the price of oil (or the # of barrells of oil required to buy the Dow). It must be at multi-year highs by now. I'm confused enough now that I don't know if it means the Dow is overvalued, or whether it means oil is undervalued although I would lean towards the latter. Unfortunately I don't have any production costs, but I would be interested as well if someone has some insight. Regards, Garry