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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: paulmcg0 who wrote (14115)2/16/1998 11:52:00 AM
From: Liatris Spicata  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 94695
 
Whoaa, Hold on There, Padnuh Paul-

<<I have a bad feeling about this market so I've opted out of it and no longer own any stocks.>>

While I certainly agree the market looks a bit pricey (not grossly, IMO, but a little). Still, equities are intimately linked to the greatest wealth-producing engine known to Man (the species, not the sex). Lotsa smart folks were saying the Dow looked pricey 2000 points ago. My best friend is pretty smart, but he's sat on his duff the entire bull market of the 90's, thinking we were in a tulip mania. Market timing is not a game very many people should play with the bulk of their financial assets.

May I suggest with your liquidity that you start dollar cost averaging? Find stocks, or funds you like for the long haul, and then put a set amount of money at regular intervals (say monthly or quarterly) into those vehicles. You'll buy fewer shares when in the market is high, and more when it sells off. You will not be locked out of the greatest wealth producing machine in history and you will not suffer unduly if and when the market does correct its current excesses. Moreover, you'll participate in the recovery.

FWIW I'm rather cautious about the market today also- but I felt that way when the DOW crossed 4000. Sure am glad I didn't bail out then.

Larry

P.S. Thanks for the link- I've never read Extraordinary Popular Delusions, but I'll have a look at it now.



To: paulmcg0 who wrote (14115)2/17/1998 11:05:00 PM
From: David Smith  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 94695
 
I thought your remarks about the current national mania for the stock market were right on the money. Recently, while on vacation in New Mexico, I pulled up to a tiny roadside outpost about 100 miles from the nearest town...literally in the middle of nowhere. The place was dilapidated, and I was sure I wasn't going to be able to find the cup of coffee I was looking for. I walked into the place and found an 80 year old Indian woman, whose main business seemed to be peddling tribal artifacts to any tourists who stopped by. There was almost nothing in the place. There was, however, a working color television, and that elderly Indian woman was intently watching a live report from the floor of the NYSE on CNBC. I asked her if she followed the market, and she smiled and opened a drawer packed with brokerage and mutual fund statements. She explained that she had 9 mutual funds, and had recently bought a satellite dish (which was indeed outside) so she could follow the action every day, minute by minute. She said that she used to drive an hour every few days to go to an Indian casino, but gave it up when she discovered the stock market. For some reason, that last revelation was less than comforting to me.

Reflecting on the experience afterwards, I decided that when the stock market becomes an integral part of the lives of little old Indian women in the middle of New Mexico, we are either at the dawn of what will be a bear-crushing surge to Dow 20,000, or at the precipice of a financial apocalypse that make 1929 and 1987 look walks in the park. The optimist in me favors the former, while the contrarian in me can't help but respect the possibility of the latter.