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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sean Collett who wrote (73691)	9/22/2023 6:12:42 PM
From: Harshu Vyas	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78701

Hi Sean, You're totally right. Streamers are undoubtedly struggling right now. Disney is worth shorting. Overvalued by at least 30%. However, I think this is where you and I don't see eye-to-eye. In the long-term, cable won't really be a threat to streamers. The streamers will eventually run a cable business model without cable - i.e they will make consumers pay a fee and they will run adverts. They will show TV shows/movies and live sports etc too. I agree that there's some consolidation to be done. I also think PARAA could be a buyout target at these valuations. I'm not a NFLX bull. I don't see their value. They have the best platform right now but their potential is limited imo. At the end of the day, streamers need to generate cash. That's the test. If they can prove that they can consistently do it, they'll be valued at much higher multiples. That means not competing on "market share" (ie price) (which is what has been done in the past) and actually focussing on making profits. (Picking winners and losers? Being early? Isn't that the job of an investor?) If WBD can reduce their leverage (which shouldn't actually be that difficult), how can they possibly fail? In the long-term, they're as close as you get to a guaranteed success. I guess no-one can be arsed to wait that long, though. As for cable, do you really think it'll be around a decade from now? People today want simple. Streaming is simple. Cable, less so. Young people (i.e me) will not pay for cable - the only reason my parents do is to watch sports (news is free here) and it's a rip-off (here in the UK, anyway). Streaming is less hassle, more straightforward and easy to cancel when the football season is over! Best, Harshu Vyas