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Strategies & Market Trends : ajtj's Post-Lobotomy Market Charts and Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: rimshot who wrote (81502)	9/23/2023 2:10:26 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	1 Recommendation Recommended By rimshot Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 97986

I don't know about a long term hold from here. I'm away from my computer so can't post the chart again but the analog chart I posted a day or two ago comparing 1930-2022 averaged does show a bounce right around now but then plunges to lower lows. This would make sense since we are entering the end/beginning of month inflows time period but fundamentals are still bleeding. Note the charts in the TGA RRP post I just did. It appears Yellen is filling up the TGA ahead of end of quarter which should be a headwind for the market. We could get your rally after we set lows though once she starts draining the TGA again. This would also match an election cycle statistic I read earlier (sorry, I didn't keep it) that showed years that go like we have so far drop in the next few weeks but then rise roughly 60% of the time the next month and about 75% of the time November/December. Many stocks may already be near their lows but through the magic of weighted indexes, the MAGNA 7 have artificially made them rise and could easily make them fall, even if the rest don't fall much. I was just thinking about this earlier. The story goes that funds were buying them as a safety play because they are global behemoths. It was occurring to me this could easily hurt them. If Europe and China are slowing while we are also having a strong dollar, international sales could crater. Meanwhile here in the US, we have zombie small caps scrambling to get cash flow positive before their refinancing comes around because they are staring at rates 3-4 times current funding. They are going to be tightening their belts so I doubt they are going to be big customers. We should get some clues this week. I think MU reports which should give some insight into at least semi sales.