Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Worswick who wrote (2200)	2/16/1998 12:24:00 PM
From: Mohan Marette	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

U.S- 'mother and bastion of modern protectionism' ? Worswick: Here is something I found in the Economic Times from India. I thought this argument by Noam Chomsky is kind of revealing and thought provoking to say the least.Any opinion? CITINGS It would be plain silly to bring up the fact that from its origins, the US has been 'the mother country and bastion of modern protectionism'. I am quoting the eminent economic historian Paul Bairoch, who proceeds to document his more general conclusion that 'it is difficult to find another case where the facts so contradict a dominant theory' as the doctrine that free markets were the engine of growth, or for that matter, that great powers adhered to them except for temporary advantage.... The United States, in particular, has always been extreme in rejecting market discipline. That is how it developed from the beginning, including textiles, steel, energy, chemicals, computers and electronics, pharmaceuticals agribusiness, and so on, gaining enormous wealth and power instead of pursuing its comparative advantage in exporting furs, in accord with the stern principles of economic rationality. Nor did the American developmental state break new ground. Britain had followed a similar course, only turning to free trade after 150 years of protectionism had given it such enormous advantages that a 'level playing field' seemed a fairly safe bet, even then relying on the fact that 40 per cent of its exports could go to the Third World (1800-1938). It is not easy to find an exception, from the origins of Europe's industrial revolution, when Daniel Defoe, expressing the common perception in 1728, warmed that England faced an uphill struggle in attempting to compete with 'China, India and other Eastern countries'. Noam Chomsky in Powers and Prospects: Reflections on Human Nature and the Social Order ---------------------------------------------------------------- Now regarding your post and the comments by the lady seems rather harsh and a stereotypical.I don't know how she could paint the whole lot as irresponsible,feckless et al. I believe the 'blame game' she speak of is as old as human history and nothing new and hardly surprising. On the other hand one can only wish the political machinery and policy makers realize the gravity of the situation and correct their policies accordingly, inspite of the inherent genetic propensities to blame others for their shortcomings. She said, "The problem with the Indonesians is that they are a totally feckless, irresponsible people.... who always blame others for problems of their own making. They are unwilling to admit they bear any responsibility for any present problem."

To: Worswick who wrote (2200)	2/16/1998 12:47:00 PM
From: tom	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 9980

I hate to admit it but I tend to agree with Jim Rogers when it comes to Indonesia (His quote when asked about Indonesia as an investment location "Indonesia won't even be a country in five years time"). Indo's most immediate problems are: - Huge foreign debt which the country cannot possibly service let alone repay (hence the debt moratorium) ie. the country is bankrupt - Banks are not lending domestically so the economy has essentially stopped for the last 6 months. Even exporters cannot get credit for working capital ie there is no liquidity to keep the bankrupt companies afloat. - Suharto is, to put it mildly, unpopular and has no idea of how to deal with the crisis even if a way out existed. People in Indonesia are concerned at his attitude to the country (ie he thinks he owns it and therefore can take what he likes from it) - No de-regulation of cartels owned by Suharto's friends has happened so far. The IMF know this and there is the risk that they will pull out as Indo has done practically nothing that the IMF asked it to do. - Massive unemployment looming as companies are forced to lay off workers - The riots will get much worse - just wait until the unemployment starts to bite and people come to the cities looking for work that doesn't exist - Hyperinflation is likely if a currency peg is not introduced - El Nino has not helped and would be a bear story in itself if all the other stuff had not happened. Can you think of any more?

To: Worswick who wrote (2200)	2/16/1998 8:09:00 PM
From: Stitch	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

Worswick; <<It is my opinion that if Asia disappears in a deflationary black hole we will soon be dragged down into the pit ourselves.>> This is my opinion as well. Whether we like it or not we have traded and prospered beyond the ability of taking any form of exclusionary or isolationist posture at this time. The world just "don't work that way anymore". And the problem is that we are ill-prepared for the consequences of the last several years of relative good times. Lulled by the seeming dissolution of communism, a raging bull market, high employment rates, cheap consumer products and distracted by whatever current political scandal is in the news, it may be that we have fallen asleep at our respective wheels. Not a day goes by that I do not wonder at what the history books are going to be saying about this period we are in. best, Stitch