Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (73898)	10/6/2023 7:30:27 AM
From: Elroy	Respond to of 78753

You yourself, Elroy, have considered and alluded to the timeframe which you've considered for some stocks: NGL: "I think this guy is easily above $5.00 by April 1st next year." I assume you'll be in and reassess then if the stock hasn't met your goal by that time. I don't think of this as the "holding period", as in, if this expected scenario happens, then in April I sell at $5. I think the fundamentals of NGL seem quite good, and over time (about two years I'd say) it's probably going to $10. And then, it will continue to rise with EBITDA growth and distribution increases due to their growing, highly profitable water business. Between now and April I think they will increase their fiscal '24 (Mar) EBITDA guidance, and my hunch is that will push the share up around the $5 level. But you know, who knows? I don't plan to sell until there is clarity around distributions, which should happen (not distributions, clarity around distribution timing) in fiscal '25 (Mar). Then the price forecast will depend on the distribution, and distribution growth. If NGL's fundamental business performance changes, permanently, for the negative, I'll likely sell. No idea what the unit price may be then through. I haven't got anything like a holding period timeline on NGL. Hopefully many years, with lots of high distributions. NGL is risky, but it could be a super rocker!