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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: E_K_S who wrote (73918)	10/10/2023 2:20:28 PM
From: Elroy	1 Recommendation Recommended By Spekulatius Respond to of 78517

Maybe you get 2% growth out to 2025. What's so good about that? Maybe you are holding for the 1.86% dividend. Or they could just be in a cyclical market. What am I missing? You're not missing something, but you're using consensus estimates rather than your own understanding of the stock and company to determine the future EPS growth. MCHP is hugely profitable and cash flow positive, and increasing it's dividend. The share price will trade more with the semiconductor industry in general than on MCHP's own fundamental trends. And MCHP grew phenomenally well through the recent semiconductor industry slowdown, and is having NOW (H2 2023) a slowdown of it's own as its customer absorb the inventory which they purchased despite the semiconductor industry slowing down. Your posted numbes probably capture that current time (ongoing right now!!) slowdown. Once MCHP's customers have consumed their excess inventory to get their buying "back to normal" then MCHP's numbers will again progress higher like a blue chip diversified semiconductor maker. I don't know what the fiscal '24 March year end growth number is, but the long term annual growth sure seems like 10% is reasonable. Who really knows with semis, ya know? But it's likely that for the next few DECADES MCHP is going to grow and grow and grow. You can try to time when is th 18% growth year and when is the 2% growth year, but if you want to buy and hold and not think about it MCHP is a winner. Put up their past five year revenue numbers to see what I'm talking about. It's up and up and up.