A few observations ...
Re <<Meanwhile, the US project to resuscitate the Abraham Accords loses traction and the plot to undermine the China-brokered Saudi-Iranian rapprochement faces sudden death.
As regards the power dynamic in West Asia, these trends can only work to the advantage of Russia and China, especially if the BRICS were to take a lead role at some point to navigate a Middle East peace process that is no longer the monopoly of the US. This is payback time for Russia.
The era of petrodollar is ending — and along with that, the US’ global hegemony. The emergent trends, therefore, go a long way to strengthen multipolarity in the world order.>>
Dunno, agnostic, have to ponder, but to make sure my understanding of the author's points correctly, let me check my takeaway notes with you to make sure that I understand the author correctly, that his points are below ...
(i) the wars in Ukraine / Russia and Israel / Gaza are linked
(ii) weakness / defeat in one war affects the outcome of the other war, and the wars are in part of more complicating engagement between US and Russia, and complicated engagement between US and China, and one or another way, a whole lot of other domains
(iii) the longer the Israel / Palestine war, the more exhausting, especially to the side less able to afford such an endurance war, irrespective of capabilities and capacities needed to endure a long war (there is an ancient Chinese saying 'the barefooted combatant need not fear the other wearing brand new shoes'), and
(iv) because the long wars require meshing of strategy(ies) leading to a shaped outcome, from as many sides / domains as possible, then capabilities and capacities of strategists matter
(v) saying the quiet part out loud, the author did not, seemingly by deliberation, mention EU, either because EU is down for the count from the get-go, or was never of consequence from the get-go, as soon as de-colonisation started, and now to advanced stage, de-franco-fication of Western Africa and very soon, sharp ramping of French uranium fuel from $11 per kg to $200+ per kg.
(vi) Germany did not and is not doing well w/ ramping of energy cost, and doubtful France shall do different. knee-capped EU at the core, starting with Germany and France, leads to every-domain-for-self existential progression.
If the author is saying what he meant, per above takeaway notes, then the situation is indeed dire.
If my takeaways are incorrect, then never mind, all is well, and situation all okay.
In the mean time we are told by Bloomberg / Israel to expect another 'long war', presumably because Israel is now positioned to fight for the rule-based order, even as the fight by Israel, at some juncture, shall detract from the fight for same order by Ukraine, to the last Ukrainian in case of one situation, and to the last tax dollar in the other situation.
bloomberg.com
Israel Latest: Minister Tells Blinken to Brace for ‘Long War’
Israel Latest: Ground Operations in Gaza Looming
By Bloomberg News
16 October 2023 at 13:09 GMT+8
Updated on
17 October 2023 at 05:06 GMT+8
Israel’s defense minister told the US to expect a “long war” against Hamas, as Secretary of State Antony Blinken returned to Israel for further talks amid a global push to prevent the conflict from spreading. President Joe Biden is also considering a visit.
Russian President Vladimir Putin held a call with the leaders of Egypt, Syria, Iran and the Palestinian Authority to discuss the war, and the Kremlin said there was a “unanimous opinion” on the need for an urgent cease-fire. Putin spoke separately by phone with Netanyahu to brief him on the conversations.
Israel says it’s keeping open an internal corridor for evacuation of the northern Gaza Strip, with more than 600,000 people having already left for the south. The Oct. 7 attacks by Hamas — designated a terrorist organization by the US and European Union — have killed at least 1,400 Israelis. Palestinian officials say Israel airstrikes have killed more than 2,700 people in Gaza. |
