To: Defrocked who wrote (14184 ) 2/17/1998 1:54:00 PM From: Cynic 2005 Respond to of 18056
Def: Politicians will solve all the economic woes, don't they? ------------- Tuesday February 17, 1:33 pm Eastern Time US market players pan Japan LDP study group plans By Chris Stetkiewicz NEW YORK, Feb 17 (Reuters) - U.S. experts and investors panned a fiscal stimulus proposal from junior Japanese political leaders released overnight, calling it a skimpy menu of dubious proposals. ''It's becoming clear that a big stimulus package is unlikely and the market has begun to think we may have more disappointing news than good news at the G7 meeting,'' said Takanobu Igarashi, economist at Sanwa Bank Ltd New York. The yen rallied briefly overnight after the package was announced. But U.S. trading saw the yen hit session lows against the dollar and surrender modest gains versus the mark. ''I tend to think the market's reaction -- first pushing the yen higher, then reversing course -- is probably a logical one,'' said Andrew Hodge, financial strategist at Bank Brussels Lambert in New York. With a meeting of top global finance officials set for Saturday in London, many investors had been expecting a generous stimulus plan to placate U.S. officials who have aggressively urged Japan to boost its foundering economy. But the uninspiring report raised the odds that Japanese leaders would again face criticism from their counterparts at the weekend meeting of the Group of Seven (G7) industrial nations, economists said. The Japanese study group was comprised of members of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party known to oppose the current party leadership. It included several former ministers, including former Economic Planning Agency Minister Taro Aso. Of its three main proposals, only its goal of permanently extending a recent one-time income tax cut drew praise from U.S. experts.''That makes a lot of sense. The temporary windfall of a one-year tax cut would just go into savings accounts. The more long-term you make it, the more likely people are to spend it,'' said Arthur Alexander, president of the Japan Economic Institute of America, a Washington think-tank partially funded by the Japanese Foreign Ministry. But analysts doubted that debt-averse Japan could muster the political courage to extend the tax cuts more than another year or so. In fact, the study group did propose delaying by three years Japan's current goal of ending new deficit-financing bond issues by the fiscal year 2003/4. But that would require Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto to go back on a pledge to eliminate the Japanese budget deficit, Igarashi said. ''If he gives up on that pledge, he'd have to resign. What he'll likely do instead is quietly shift his stance from reducing the budget deficit to a somewhat more stimulative fiscal policy,'' he added. The other main LDP group proposal -- a 10 trillion-yen supplementary budget for the coming fiscal year -- would also require a Herculean political effort, analysts said. The group called for issuance of construction bonds as part of that mini-budget, which raised concerns of inefficient pork barrel spending with no lasting economic boost. ''Japan has frittered away large amounts on government construction in the past. Generally, this sort of spending goes to construction companies that are favorites of the LDP,'' Alexander said. The yen late last week had strengthened to 122.35 to the dollar -- its best showing since last November -- largely as a result of expectations that Japan would enter the G7 talks armed with a solid stimulus plan to quell its critics. But a Friday dollar rally resumed on Tuesday, pushing the dollar as high as 126.92 yen.