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Strategies & Market Trends : ajtj's Post-Lobotomy Market Charts and Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: towerdog who wrote (82127)	10/17/2023 7:19:00 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 97597

Yep, that is what I have been doing. Almost everything in Tbills with just enough to trade the chop each day. I find the morning is easiest for me. Less headfakes as everyone is taking positions. I wait for the amateurs to pile on the first few minutes then jump in. After an hour or so, the algorithms start playing their games and I quit or scale back. A lot of headfakes start. False breakouts, deep corrections that overshoot, pull backs that stop short of targets etc. Day to day has been noisy due to conflicting input underneath. TGA build has been pulling down on liquidity but RRP draw has been more than enough to counter it. More RRP is coming out than TGA is using so the extra is leaking into equities, gold, silver etc. The problem is reporting is delayed for TGA. Example, yesterday saw a HUGE RRP draw. Then today I get the one day behind TGA number and it grew by almost 100 billion. Net effect is it was actually a liquidity drain but we don't know until a day later. Still, it's been Liquidity positive for the last couple weeks. Fundamentally, at these interest rates, the SPX should be down at least 100 from here, probably more. Real rates made new highs on most durations today. T-Bill auction this week is going to be a big one. I think it's 95 billion just for the 4 week though a lot of that is rollovers for previous expiring ones. Small and midcaps are near the bottom of their range which has been pretty clear the last year. Large caps and tech are more messy. The clue for me not to hold short this morning was we were oversold after the open, the trannies and RSP equal weight were holding strong and even climbed a bit. Either they needed to crack or it was just going to be a big tech slaughter. I don't short mania stocks and I don't go long bad FA so I just stood aside for a bit, then scalped here and there and quit. I'm overdue for a bad day so I'm being extra careful. I've had a great few weeks. After some bad ones earlier in the year, I learned to stop swinging for the fences and just tally a lot of base hits. If I could get Qone's software, then maybe I'd take bigger bites but it doesn't work on my platform. Only the "lite" version works. I finally managed to convert my daily program system to the day trading platform.... I think. I've been test driving it the last 2 days and it seems to be working though it will eventually need to be tweaked as it fires signals a bit too early on the faster time frames. It's a blend of things so I'm not sure which input(s) will have to be changed or if I can just learn to wait x bars before entering/exiting the trades. (It failed miserably on the morning squeeze though and said to exit way too early) I wasn't trading at the time but it was running in the background and said to buy correctly but said to get out 3/4 of the move up. It also got me in a bit early on the noonish pull back so I need to not trust it too much yet. Luckily I rode it out and got out flat before the next leg down. Anyway, this is too long so I'm going to run my scans.