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To: Les H who wrote (28216)	10/19/2023 9:20:03 AM
From: Les H	1 Recommendation Recommended By The Ox Respond to of 29599

It is difficult to become reasonably assured that a sustainable rally in stocks is ahead during the best six months of the year for the market while interest rates remain on the rise. Stocks tumbled on Wednesday as a new multi-year high in interest rates had investors pulling back. The S&P 500 Index closed with a loss of 1.34%, continuing to feel the rejection from resistance at the declining 50-day moving average close to 4400. The intermediate moving average is working to keep the short-term trend of lower-lows and lower-highs stemming from the July peak intact as we navigate closer to the strongest time of the year for the stock market ahead. The benchmark closed almost precisely at implied short-term support at the 20-day moving average of 4314, but the more significant hurdle to scrutinize remains the band of support between 4100 and 4200. While the intermediate-term risk-reward remains favourable so long as the band of support remains intact, we may have to accept a sluggish trading environment in the near-term while investors digest the earnings reports and gauge the direction of yields. equityclock.com The chance of the Fed raising the interest rate by 25 points is now about 50% for the two meetings after the early November meetings. The 3-, 6-, and 12-month Treasury bill yields are already at 5 1/2 percent. $SPX is close to falling out of the wedge between the 21-day moving average and the 50-day moving average, similar to early September.