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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (74016)	10/19/2023 9:09:32 PM
From: E_K_S	Respond to of 78667

Re: Agco Corp(AGCO) link to dividend history AGCO on Nasdaq.com You are correct that there is a Special Dividend paid every May (since 2021). Not sure this is going to be a standard practice but that brings the regular dividend down to 1% (vs 5%). When I look at the cash flow (both by Quarter & Annual) under "Financing Cash Flow" you can see the Dividend paid in 2020 at $48 million, then in 2021 $358.5 million & 2022 $404.3 million). Net Income doubled from 2020 to 2022. The FCF is still really positive After these annual dividends: 12/2020 $626.6 million 12/2021 $390.4 million (paid a Special dividend $4.00/share 5/2021) 12/2022 $449.9 million (paid a Special dividend $4.50/share 5/2022) 5/2023 (1st two quarters negative) (paid a Special dividend $5.00/share 5/18/20230 But I see the Quarterly FCF for 2023 negative for the 1st two quarters; Debt payments almost down to $0.00. ---------------------------------------------------------------- My takeaway after this review is (1) I like that Debt is small and almost paid off; (2) it looks like Q3 & Q4 s/d have strong FCF as these Special Dividends hit Q2 and cause FCF to turn negative. I did not realize the growth in their revenues were so big. I owned this in 2019 & 2021 but sold it as the stock more than doubled. I see it ran from $40/share 3/2020 to $150/share 4/2021. FWIW I still own a few share of AGGZF which is in a similar business but no tractors; went from $13/share 3/2020 to over $36/share 4/2021. They mainly do grain bins and other implements. The big kicker for me was AGCO's acquisition of Trimble Ag unit. Trimble and AGCO to Form Joint Venture to Better Serve Farmers Worldwide with Mixed Fleet Precision Agriculture Solutions Under the terms of the JV, Trimble will contribute its precision agriculture business ("Trimble Ag") excluding certain Global Navigation Satellite System ("GNSS") and guidance technologies and AGCO will contribute its JCA Technologies business, which is a leader in the development of autonomous software for agricultural machines, implement controls and electronic system components. Trimble will receive $2 billion in pre-tax cash proceeds plus a 15% stake in the JV. In addition, the parties will enter into (i) a long-term Supply Agreement through which Trimble will provide the JV with key GNSS and guidance technologies ("Supply Agreement"), (ii) a Technology Transfer and License Agreement ("TTLA") to govern the licensing of Trimble trademarks and technology for use by the JV after the expiration of the Supply Agreement and (iii) a Positioning Services Agreement through which the JV will serve as a channel partner to Trimble for its positioning services in the agriculture market (collectively, the "Commercial Agreements"). The JV will align two leading companies dedicated to serving farmers worldwide with cutting-edge technologies to help farmers drive productivity, efficiency and sustainability. For customers, the JV's technology is expected to offer seamless integration and connectivity across geographies, equipment brands and the crop life cycle. For dealers, it is expected to better serve farmers with a broad, complementary, and leading technology portfolio. Maybe no special dividend this year as this $2 billion gets paid down from FCF.

To: Paul Senior who wrote (74016)	10/21/2023 7:29:34 AM
From: Spekulatius	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78667

Added a bit more CNHI. Stock fell on a sell reco from Oppenheimer. These AG equipment plays are cheap, but the higher interest rates will probably reduce sales of AG equipment, since most of it gets financed. On the other hand, the pricing for AG products is quite strong, so farmers are pretty flush. There are also interesting secular things going on like increased consolidation and precision agriculture.

To: Paul Senior who wrote (74016)	10/21/2023 10:10:46 AM
From: E_K_S	1 Recommendation Recommended By Spekulatius Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78667

Re: Titan Machinery Inc(TITN) Have accumulated an 85% position w/ an avg price of $26.95. SMA(200) weekly now at $25.21/share. Next Buy will be in size and then will scale out of a few high cost shares at/above $32. Market Cap $567 million; 4.82x PE; Debt/Equity 0.17x; selling close to BV at 0.97x Book Ai Bard conclusion on the recent announcement (10/18/2023) of New CEO. Titan Machinery's leadership succession plan is expected to help the company grow in the future in the following ways: Continuity of leadership: Knutson has a deep understanding of Titan Machinery's business and a proven track record of success. His appointment as CEO ensures that the company will continue to be led by an experienced and knowledgeable executive. Focus on growth: Knutson has stated that he is focused on leading Titan Machinery into its next phase of growth. He has identified a number of areas where the company can expand, such as its digital presence, its precision agriculture offerings, and its international business. Strong relationships: Knutson has strong relationships with Titan Machinery's customers, suppliers, and employees. These relationships will be valuable as he leads the company into the future. In terms of specific growth estimates, Titan Machinery has not provided any guidance. However, the company has stated that it is targeting long-term revenue growth of 5-7% per year. Titan Machinery has not announced any new partnerships or retail/dealership expansion plans in conjunction with its leadership succession. However, the company has stated that it is committed to expanding its digital presence and its precision agriculture offerings. Overall, Titan Machinery's leadership succession plan is a positive development for the company. Knutson is a well-respected and experienced executive who is well-positioned to lead the company into its next phase of growth. Specific areas of growth Knutson has identified a number of specific areas where he believes Titan Machinery can grow, including: Digital: Knutson believes that Titan Machinery needs to invest in its digital capabilities in order to better serve its customers. The company is currently developing a new e-commerce platform and is expanding its digital marketing efforts. Precision agriculture: Precision agriculture is a growing trend in the agricultural industry. Knutson believes that Titan Machinery can be a leader in this area by providing its customers with the latest precision agriculture technologies and services. International: Titan Machinery already has a presence in several international markets. Knutson believes that the company can expand its international business by entering new markets and by expanding its existing operations. New partnerships and/or retail/dealership expansion plans Titan Machinery has not announced any new partnerships or retail/dealership expansion plans in conjunction with its leadership succession. However, the company has a history of expanding through acquisitions. It is possible that Knutson will pursue additional acquisitions in order to accelerate Titan Machinery's growth. Services discussed Titan Machinery offers a wide range of services to its customers, including: Equipment sales and leasing Parts and service Precision agriculture services Financial services Knutson has not stated which services he plans to focus on as CEO. However, he has said that he is committed to providing Titan Machinery's customers with the best possible products and services.