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Technology Stocks : Microprose, MPRS -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sleeperz who wrote (256)	2/16/1998 9:58:00 PM
From: Richard Makowiec	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 633

IMHO I don't claim to know alot about the market...I try my best to make little gains here and there...I may not know much but I do think alot. Perhaps members in this thread do as well. On the Yahoo thread you get posts like,"It will be bought out in a day". On SI you get more reasonable remarks (due dilligence oriented investors?). Heres what I've been thinking lately: Buyout of MPRS has always been a possible outcome (since the failed GTIS merger). MPRS (Louie) stated at the time of the merger that MPRS had other strategic possibiliies (not just GTIS). For me this possibility is difficult to assign a probability. Still, it is possible...the way I figure is for conditions to be perfect 3 important items needed: 1)MPRS has to be willing to be bought out 2)Co. has to be interested in buying MPRS 3)The group has to be at stage which requires consolidation For me item 1 is supported by the willingness of MPRS to be sold to GTIS at the time. I don't really put alot of credence in the recent comments from the co. about "Making it as an independent". Those are comments more appropriate if nobody wanted to buy you. You know if you had no future appeal. I think the MPRS line-up offers appeal. While unproven (not launched yet) risks remain that products are not suitable for market...past game mag reviews would counteract this though. 2.For me item 2 is mainly based on the ability to acuire (more than the desire). It takes money (or high priced paper) to acquire. Many co's in the group have the ability becuase of the recent trendlines offered to them (ERTS is only one example). From what I have seen and heard in the market, co's try to time purchases based on the value of their stock...it makes sense right? Why dilute more than you have to. Timing a purchase when your co. stock trades high makes the investors happy (for the most part) and gives you the most leverage (bang for your buck). 3. For me item 3 is obvious. This sector is plagued by competition, low margins, hit-or miss products, etc. While many contestants exist...the level they are on is always changing. One day your co. has all the products on the shelves, the next year you don't (in development). In this industry it's hard to control a lead...the consumer decides who is number 1 and they do it very briskly. Sometimes the easiest way to grow the sales is to acquire. This constantly changing environment warrants co's to attempt throwing the dice more often(get more out there in the way of products and hope Tom & Mary consumer like it and pass the word -via- mouth ). Since time is critical, buying can be much easier to to go head-to-head in this market than developing (especially if you have already fallen behind and the threat of your biggest competitor doubling it's market share next x-mas is staring you straight in the face). _____Ok, now that I've bored everyone. Let's talk about windows. No not windows 95 or 3.11. Windows of highest probability for a buyout. Next x-mas is about 10 months away. MPRS has a nice line-up. Again, none may be hits, some may be or all may be...who knows but the consumer? If I were a CEO of a major game software co., I would be be looking at MPRS through a magnifying glass about now. Then I would look at my "means" to buy (co. stock val). Then I would look at my competition and question myself, Are one of them going to go after it since the GTIS break-up. Then I would determine if I wanted it before them. Next is if I got it instead, would it make my co. have better odds down the road? Or could I develope/license products to counteract a competitor getting it (or take a chance that MPRS comes back and next year and I'm in their shoes and their in mine). If after all this (and I know I left some impotant questions out...but this post is getting long enough already) I decided that I wanted MPRS I would now have to decide the best time to do it. Obviously, waitin until next Oct is not logical...more obvios is if I waited until MPRS started shipping pipeline products the risk of the stock trading up and MPRS investors commanding more money would exist. It seems to me the best time to make a play for MPRS would be before end of Mar/98. What does this mean? Not a whole lot since I am not blessed with any information that leads me to believe somebody will make a play for MPRS. I can only speculate. If I were to say a play for MPRS was possible (which I do), I would have to pick the next 1-8 weeks as the best time for it to happen. It may happen later than that...IT MAY NOT HAPPEN AT ALL! Again, I can't assign a probabilty to this because I simply have no quantitative means of doing so. All I can suggest is I think higher odds exist before MPRS starts shipping products out the door. If an offer is made, of course it would need to be reasonable. $3/share gets the phone hung up quick...$5,6,7 maybe MPRS brass listens and does lunch a few times. Anyway, what's everyone think? I desire to hold 1 year in any event. I just thought I would share a thought. My entire post above is speculation and I don't wish to increase hopes(or give false hopes) for a buyout offer. I merely wish to express that I think the best window is now until about 6-8 weeks out. Any thoughts? Rich