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Strategies & Market Trends : ajtj's Post-Lobotomy Market Charts and Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (82631)	11/2/2023 4:03:48 PM
From: Sun Tzu	Respond to of 98114

That is funny. While you were busy with that, I was showcasing my Toyota trade without having read your post. Anyways, (1) I don't always trade microcaps. Most of the times I trade leveraged index funds or futures. The microcaps are the only ones that can provide the same kind of volatility and moves as the futures. Understand the trade setup before you complain. (2) As often is the case, you only hear what you want to hear. I didn't say timeframe is all that I care about. I said that it is the most important decision you make because it affects everything else. In terms of actual trade setup, I care about the trend and where the stock is in relation to the trend and in relation to the red/green lines. After that it is about the momentum indicators. Read my Toyota trade to understand the system.

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (82631)	11/2/2023 11:38:14 PM
From: Sun Tzu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 98114

I forgot about your red/green line question. At the low of the market, all my major indicators were oversold and the context sensitive RSI (yellow panel) was going above the midline. That is the classic we have a bump coming up signal. You also had SPX above both of its short term trendlines, which as I explained in my TM trade, is a major buy signal, confirming the rest of the setup. Going against this was the fact that the green line was falling. And that is most often a veto on the buy signal. BUT, there are two ways around that: Firstly, you could switch to a shorter timeframe, say hourly. The implication here is that you acknowledge that you should be more vigilant watching the tape and you will react faster with tighter stoploss and accept the risk of larger number of false signals. Your other option was to wait for more bars and then reassess the whole setup, not just the red/green lines. Specifically, 2 more bars later it went above the green line and had more than enough positives behind it to overcome the rule on not buying when the green line if falling. Just look at the trend, the RSI, and everything else on that timeframe and all the lower timeframes. They were all consistent with a buy. No snags. I've put the conservative buy point and the 4hr and 1hr charts below. Now let's talk about your shitty attitude: Just don't teach one thing while doing the opposite. I know that you read my detailed post about respecting the trend. It was posted both here and the Art of Investing thread. Do please tell us what is my very first rule about trading? Message 34460008 Here, let me quote it for you: *" #1 Follow the trend"* So even though it is there in clear black and white and on the chart and everywhere else, you tell me: "Why fight the trend when you claim you follow the trend." Seriously?! Where is your head? Could it be that trend is depends on your timeframe? Did you read and try to understand the post you were replying to? It is all about the importance of the timeframe. Could it be that trend is not absolute like you like to believe it is? You hear what you want to hear without even trying to understand. Why do you think I have rule a rule against buying on a falling green line or shorting against rising red line. Why do think they are there? Those are your downtrend / uptrend lines. "What you preach and what you post you're trading don't match." Or you just don't understand what I've been saying because you have your preconceived notions about what the stock market should do and what a trend is and you can't divorce yourself from them. Is the market in an uptrend or a downtrend? That depends very much on how you define your trend. If your trend and timeline is big enough, we have not had a downtrend since 2009. If that is your timeline, just buy every dip and don't bother trading. Here are the SPX charts with all the red/green lines. See how the trend changes when you use the 1hr chart? See how the market showed strength all the way from below the green line to above it and then kept going? The conservative buy point is marked on the charts. The aggressive buy would have been when context sensitive RSI went above 50. That would have nearly marked the first up bar on the spot. PS The relationship between the types of RSI is telling me to expect a buy the dip opportunity. It remains buy the dip until the regular RSI begins to weaken. There is enough info on the charts to understand the interaction between regular and context sensitive RSIs and the red/green bands. 4hr SPX . . 1hr SPX

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (82631)	11/3/2023 10:30:29 AM
From: The Ox	2 Recommendations Recommended By Lee Lichterman III Sun Tzu Respond to of 98114

Hi Lee, I strongly suggest you consider how often you cherry pick a company to fit your thesis. Moderna is perfect. A few years ago, no one, and I mean NO ONE predicted the kind of money they would make during the pandemic. (OK, maybe a few epidemiologists or others who closely follow the industry might have expected them to soar...) After years of losing money, they made over $20/share 2 years in a row. They'll be losing money for the next several years, if I had to guess. But who knows what price they might be worth if the proper suitor came along and gobbled them up? They're not "a scam" or a joke. They are in an industry that requires massive capital investment. There are too many biotech related companies that were in the hundreds of dollars that are either gone/bankrupt or worth a few dollars a share at best. Your main point about the trends are important. But coiled springs explode higher when EVERYONE rushes in. No one wanted XBI at $64 share and now they're buying hand over fist above $70!! Oh...make that $71, grin.... All ST is trying to do is find situations where the coiled spring is showing indications of changing or strength is fading. I do appreciate that you put yourself "out there" with your calls. I'm not sure why you're always resisting what ST is putting out here. His system won't necessarily predict what's going to happen 5 or 6 days from now. But he is trying to show what was happening over the past few days. No worries, just pointing out that we're all doing different things and if you don't "buy into" the charts of these small caps, it's not worth raising your blood pressure. JMO.