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Strategies & Market Trends : ajtj's Post-Lobotomy Market Charts and Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sun Tzu who wrote (82645)	11/3/2023 10:57:27 AM
From: Sun Tzu	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 98929

Investing vs trading - never confuse the two! The only difference between trading and investing is timeframe. Trading timeframe is much shorter and that affects all the other things that I talked about in a previous post. Take Moderna (I forgot the ticker MRNA?). Long downtrend, has lost most of its value...ME, BFLY............ have been drawn and quartered for months or years!!!!! ME is up 50% over the past 5 days and still powering ahead. They still haven't reported. BFLY is up 50% over the past 5 days. They reported yesterday and some sell the news is going on. It has been more tradable than ME. But ME has a better long term prospects. MRNA reported yesterday. Had a down spike on heavy volume and went up 30% from the low of yesterday to high today. 30% in 2 days is very good. FRGE will be reporting next week. If you followed the short term trend (black line) and gauged based on the green line, you would have made ~40% in a short time (chart below). The likelihood is that it will pullback a bit and then will jump after they report. But this is not the kind of stock you'd want to hold before the earnings call, unless you can read it very well and can afford to lose. As a trader, it is completely immaterial what the stock has been doing in the weeks and months before you bought it, except in as much as it provide a context for your trade. You are not trying to retire on holding them forever. Buy BRK or SPY if that is what you want. As a trader all you want to catch these big moves. The big moves only happen in volatile and meme stocks and in the futures. The gains over a few days or a few weeks are bigger than most people make in a year. Naturally the risks are also bigger. You can stack the odds in your favor if you follow some basic trend/countertrend strategies and diversify across a few. Complaining that the stock has been in a downtrend for a long time completely misses the point. You are not supposed to be holding them in the downtrend. You are trying to catch the bounces. I can bring up lots of stocks that kept a great uptrend in the way that some here like and then they crash. So I ask, which is riskier, buying something like ME where you can see the risks upfront and in your face, or buying something like CFLT that loses 50% and billions of dollars in market cap overnight?