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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kech who wrote (183127)	11/3/2023 8:14:07 AM
From: manning18	11 Recommendations Recommended By BDAZZ Doug M. garrettjax GR8FORM JeffreyHF and 6 more members Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 196976

Doesn’t this answer your question? Stacy Rasgon Got it. That's helpful. For my second question, I want to ask about the new Apple agreement. So you put that out a little while ago. You're modeling 20% share now in the phone that launches in ‘26. So that'll be primarily a fiscal ‘27 issue. How should we think about, the shape of that in ‘24 and the launches that happened in ’24 and ‘25? Do we assume that you've got close to 100% of the majority of the units there and then it drops down for modeling purposes to 20% on the ‘26 launch or like, what does that look like? Akash Palkhiwala Yes. So the way you should think about the new agreement with our kind of going into specifics, the framework is very consistent with the previous agreement. It covers three launches. So, the launch in ‘24, launch in ‘25, and launch in ‘26. And, again, the framework is consistent with what we had before. For financial planning purposes, we're taking the same approach as we did with last agreement, and that's 20% you mentioned where in the last year, we are planning as if we're going to get 20% share. But you know, to the extent that we get more than that, that'd be upside for our plan.

To: kech who wrote (183127)

11/3/2023 11:34:09 AM

From: Jim Mullens

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Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 196976

Ketch, re: 20% iPhone share 2026

Can anyone explain the "20% share at apple for 24-26". Does this mean only high end phones at apple are using qualcomm modem? Only US phones?" Are rest using on house apple modem despite its problems?

>>>>>>>>>>>>>

I think Engineer’s post about a year ago explains the 20% as an insurance policy. AAPL pays QCOM an equivalent of 20% of the annual modem sales as a guarantee to APPL that QCOM will be a backstop to supply modems if Apple fails to deliver an acceptable working product.

AAPL first indicated they would make their own modems December 2020

QCOM first indicated for planning purpose they would have 20% share of the iPhone launched in 2023 in Nov 2021 .

APPL will now have failed to deliver thru 2025 as the modem contract has been extended thru the 2025 launch at 100%, with 2026 now at 20% for planning purposes.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

To: peaceforme who wrote (175962)

From: engineer

it is cheap insurance for Apple to keep booking the 20% guarantee in return for Qualcomm to make them a backup chipset. This way they can have it both ways. They will choose some country to sell this 20% as a differntiated model.

However I will bet you that the agreement for the 20% has an option for Apple to change to any number up to 100% at some time prior to the next year model launch. My guess is that would be like 5-6 months before the product launch as a firm committ, and probably like 7 months as a preliminary commitment to book wafers. Normal production thrughput for these chips is like 16-20 weeks.

This way Apple can keep pushing up to the last minute on their own modem, and yet have full fall back for the qcoM modem if needed.

IMHO, I will say it again. I do not think that Apple will get there in 2023.