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Strategies & Market Trends : ajtj's Post-Lobotomy Market Charts and Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: ajtj99 who wrote (82730)11/9/2023 8:47:19 PM
From: Sun Tzu1 Recommendation

Recommended By
ajtj99

  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 97611
 
I have 3 things to say on this:

(1) 70% of core CPI is shelter (and related). From what I anecdotally see (and expect), rents are moderating.
(2) Wage growth has slowed down.
(3) Cleveland Fed's nowcast agrees with me ;)
They are pegging Oct CPI to 3.28/0.07 vs expectations of 3.7/0.4. This is a huge difference.
Core is pegged to 4.16/0.34 vs expectations of 4.1/0.3 - So the market sentiment will play a big part on what they choose to focus on. I am hoping that the big difference in headline will make people ignore the small variation in core.

clevelandfed.org