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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bull_dozer who wrote (202728)	11/17/2023 11:09:24 AM
From: bull_dozer	Respond to of 217677

To: bull_dozer who wrote (202728)	11/17/2023 3:20:38 PM
From: bull_dozer	Respond to of 217677

Indian buyers brush off record rates to load up on gold for Diwali Sales of coins and bars picked up last weekend - Indian dealer India dealers offering $3/oz discount versus $4 last week China premiums rise to $43-$58 per ounce range Indian buyers brushed off record high local prices this week making gold purchases during the Diwali festival week in the country, while China premiums remained buoyant after the top-buyer continued to accumulate gold holdings. "Demand improved gradually this week. It was as good as last year despite record high prices," said Harshad Ajmera, the proprietor of JJ Gold House, a wholesaler in the eastern Indian city of Kolkata. business-standard.com

To: bull_dozer who wrote (202728)	12/29/2023 5:39:06 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 217677

Following up to Message 34481416 <<(iv) [stay alert!!!]* no more Eurodollar anything starting 1st January 2024 (95% of offshore dollar 'creation')* and the mob is being herded into some mechanism called SOFR (secure overnight financing rate) reuters.com>> ... something seems to be happening, but unclear to me material, yet, if at all zerohedge.com SOFR Suddenly Soars To Record High As Key Funding Spread Hints At Imminent Liquidity Crunch BY TYLER DURDEN SATURDAY, DEC 30, 2023 - 02:20 AM Over a month ago (and well before the Fed's "shocking" dovish pivot) as the Fed's Overnight Reverse Repo tumbled below $900 billion for the first time since June 2021 amid a growing debate of where and when the Fed's reserve scarcity constraint will be hit, we warned that liquidity is rapidly approaching the reverse repo constraint level which could emerge as soon as the RRP facility dropped to $700 billion, at which point the market's all-important credit plumbing will start to crack Reverse repo plunged to $865BN, down $65BN in one day, in one of the biggest liquidity injections in RRP history. Also, fast approaching the $700BN reverse repo liquidity constraint level — zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 24, 2023 We didn't have long to wait because just a few days later, on December 1 (just after the customary month-end window dressing period) when reverse repo tumbled to a fresh multi-year low of $765 billion... [url=][/url] ... things indeed broke as we explained in " Sudden Spike In SOFR Hints At Mounting Reserve Shortage, Early Restart Of QE" (in which we correctly previewed the coming Fed pivot at a time when most were still dead certain that Powell would only care about inflation for months to come): that's when the the all-important SOFR rate (i.e., the new Libor) unexpectedly jumped 6bps to 5.39%, the highest on record... [url=][/url] ... also resulting in the largest SOFR spike vs ON RRP since Jan '21, which hit 6bps. [url=][/url] The spike caught almost everyone by surprise, even such Fed-watching luminaries as BofA's Marc Cabana because it was with "no new UST settlements, lower repo volumes, and lower sponsored bi-lateral volumes." More ominously, and confirming our take from three weeks ago, Cabana warned at the time (full note here) that "the move is consistent with the slow theme of less cash & more collateral in the system" - i.e., growing reserve scarcity - and "may have been exacerbated by elevated dealer inventories, bi-lateral borrowing need, and limited excess cash to backstop repo. If funding pressure persists, it risks Fed re-assessment of ample banking system reserves & potential early end to QT." Then, the mini liquidity crisis disappeared almost as fast as it emerged, as SOFR rates eased off and the SOFR-Fed Funds spread normalized once GSE cash entered the market as it does every month.... ... until today when not only did SOFR hit a new record high, ironically at a time when the market is pricing in more than 6 rate cuts in 2024... [url=][/url] .... but the spread between the SOFR and the effective Fed Funds rate just spiked to the highest level since the March 2020 repo crisis... [url=][/url] ... with a similar move also observed in the spread between SOFR rate and the O/N Reverse Repo which similarly blew out to the widest since the start of 2021. [url=][/url] While there was no specific catalyst behind the sudden spike, two factors are the likely culprits: the year-end liquidity crunch, and the recent sharp increase in the Fed's reverse repo facility, which has increased from a multi-year low of $683 billion on Dec 15 to yesterday's $830 billion, and which STIR strategists expect will shoot up above $1 trillion in today's final for 2023 reverse repo operation as a whopping $300+ billion in short-term liquidity in pulled from markets in just days. [url=][/url] That's the bad news. The good news is that come 2024 in a few hours, and specifically the first day of trading on Jan 2, we expect the reverse repo facility to plummet back to $700 billion once the year-end window dressing is over (especially with total US debt rising above $34 trillion to start the year), and floods the system with fresh liquidity which will stabilize the monetary plumbing at least until reverse repo dips below that key level of $700 billion at which point we expect the SOFR spikes to become a daily occurrence, and one which the Fed will no longer be able to ignore. Indeed, one can already see traces of this in the repo market, where the rate on overnight GC repo first surged to 5.625% at the open on the final trading day of December before dropping to 5.45%, according to ICAP. It has since climbed back to 5.50%. But that’s still lower than where repo rates for Dec. 29 were trading during the prior session, as markets now start frontrunning the coming reverse repo liquidity flood. Of course, once reverse repo eventually tumbles to $0 some time in March, all bets are off and the narrative shift to the next QE will begin.