State-to-state migration: Oregon posts annual population loss for the first time in 40 years
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More than 128K people moved to Oregon in 2022 but nearly 158K move out of state.
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Brandon Sawyer
By Brandon Sawyer – Data Editor, Portland Business Journal
Nov 17, 2023
Updated Nov 17, 2023 4:26am PST
Listen to this article 3 min
In 2022 Oregon's population fell by 6,018 people, or 0.14%, according to estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau. That's the first time it's backtracked since 1982-83 amid the U.S. recession of 1981-82 and a precipitous drop in timber industry employment.
While state deaths surpassed births in recent years as the population has aged, the primary factor behind the decline was a net loss in migration. Last year, an estimated 128,359 people moved to Oregon from other states or abroad, but 157,729 left the state, resulting in a net loss of 29,370 residents 1-year old or older. Seven other states — California, New York, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, Massachusetts and Louisiana — had even greater net losses. As a percentage of total population, Oregon's net loss was 0.70%, ranking it seventh worst.
Oregon has long been dependent on transplants from other states to grow its population and economy. In economist Josh Lehner's recent quarterly economic and revenue forecast from the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis, he wrote, "Looking forward, a modest rebound in migration in the years ahead will allow local businesses to hire and expand at a faster pace than the nation. However, should migration not return as expected, Oregon’s economy will not crater, but rather grow at a slower rate than in the baseline."
Looking back, the wind began to die down in Oregon's net migration sails in 2018, after several years of solid population gains peaking in 2017 with a net gain of over 40,000 residents. The Census Bureau did not release data for 2020, but 2018, 2019 and 2021 had relatively weak migration gains before the drop of nearly 30,000 last year. Since the pandemic, greater mobility enabled by remote and hybrid work has perhaps made potential residents choose to live in other states due to factors such as Oregon's high housing and living expenses as well as tax burdens. Climate, geography, social and cultural factors may have also played a role.
Whether 2022's decline is just speed bump along the state's road to growth or a long uphill grade, it's hard to say.
THE Oregon TRAIL IN & OUT
Annual migration into and out of Oregon, 2012-2022
Chart
Net migration to Oregon
From other states to Oregon
From Oregon to other states
160K
140K
120K
100K
80K
60K
40K
20K
0
-20K
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2021
2022
10,743
32,161
33,897
31,922
32,165
40,059
7,929
14,198
8,572
-29,370
Note: Data for 2020 is not available.
Top 10 states from which residents 1 year and older moved into Oregon in 2022
Chart
California
Washington
Idaho
Arizona
Colorado
New York
Texas
Florida
Illinois
Montana
0
5K
10K
15K
20K
25K
30K
35K
40K
36,429
25,457
7,508
6,108
4,827
3,712
3,534
3,501
3,266
2,723
Top 10 states to which residents 1 year and older moved out of Oregon in 2021
Chart
Washington
California
Texas
Arizona
Idaho
Colorado
Florida
New York
Montana
Oklahoma
Nevada
-40K
-35K
-30K
-25K
-20K
-15K
-10K
-5K
0
-36,061
-23,792
-12,894
-12,093
-8,410
-5,785
-5,221
-3,883
-3,691
-3,187
-2,942
-40000
Top 5 net losers and gainers of residents 1 year and older to/from Oregon
Chart
12K
8K
4K
0
-4K
-8K
-12K
California
Illinois
Iowa
Louisiana
New Jersey
Virginia
Oklahoma
Arizona
Texas
Washington
12,637
1,560
797
769
725
-1,889
-2,353
-5,985
-9,360
-10,604
Net migration to Oregon from other states in 2021
Chart
-4,000
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2021 American Community Survey
Fastest-Growing Cities in Oregon with Populations of 5,000 or More
5-year population growth
Rank Prior Rank Company
1
1
Estacada
2
2
King City
3
3
Happy Valley
View this list
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