Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Bear! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sean Collett who wrote (192)	11/19/2023 1:53:32 PM
From: Harshu Vyas	1 Recommendation Recommended By petal Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 267

Agree with most of what's said here. Still, I don't know why changing tack is the best option. I recall you were thinking of buying puts on indices months ago - maybe that's the best way of hedging your portfolio. Or buy gold? I'm not sure and I don't think it's worth much thought (unless you have a large portfolio worth protecting). All in all, I agree there's elements of a bubble but I'm not sure whether "doing something" is the best way of navigating it. Really depends on the size of your portfolio and the timescale of your holdings. The longer your timeframe, the less you have to "do." My aim is to find companies I'm comfortable holding many years into the future - problem is, so far, I haven't been successful because a) I underestimated management stupidity and b) unforeseen events (the unpredictability/risks should have been considered in more detail by myself). Look forward to hearing about the strategies you take to mitigate the bubble-i-ness (or economic pressures) of this market. Best, Harshu Vyas

To: Sean Collett who wrote (192)	11/21/2023 11:13:44 AM
From: Sean Collett	Respond to of 267

To highlight the point I made on inventory and margins, I came across this article on Reuters: Us Retailers stuck with excess stock offer bargains Just as the market has convinced itself that this is a new bull market. Most in the department store/discount space already have lower operating margins so taking gross hits is going to hurt. -Sean

To: Sean Collett who wrote (192)	12/1/2023 11:00:21 AM
From: Sean Collett	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 267

My point on corporate margins and not having inflation to protect them has been highlighted by the Fed's Daly: Again, my estimate is that in 1H 2024 we will see a very rapid rise in unemployment once holidays wrap up. This will then change everyone's perception on how strong the consumer is. They have been racking up debt like crazy while unemployment has been at 3.9%. At this point this is all just a math problem that will solve itself despite how one feels about the economy. Disinflation/deflation prevent corporations from raising prices to keep margins strong and with inventories so high they will need to drop prices to move it. ISM report came out today and paints that same picture if we look at customers inventories compared to everything else that is contracting: The increase in customers inventories will also feed into future ISM reports as this will then impact future production demands. If there is an excess of inventory they can't move then there will be a slowdown in future orders. This ISM contraction by the way is the longest stretch in 40 years. US continuing claims continue their rise: And let's not ignore the fed paper that shows our consumer has found new ways to leverage up too. Unsecured loans seem to be the latest fad outside just credit cards: Seems in a running of the bulls I am only one of the few vocal bears around. Despite what the news may say, all the signs of pain are there. US Steel is laying off 1,000 (400 were temporarily laid off in Oct and now another 600 added) workers as it idles their Granite City plant. I struggle to figure out where to put money though as there isn't a clear path for shorting given the mania in the market. Cash seems to be the safest option at the moment until a clearer pitch is in view. Seems I am the only one posting here with a heavily bearish view, but there are other members. Curious on the groups thoughts (backed by data) on where you think things are headed and how you're positioning. -Sean