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Strategies & Market Trends : Bear! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JohnyP who wrote (198)	11/24/2023 6:14:23 PM
From: Sean Collett	Respond to of 267

What I am trying to understand now is what happens as the overnight reverse repo continues to drain. Today it hit $865.907B. On November 10th, the fed released an article detailing how the ONRRP was draining rapidly to refill the treasury general account (TGA) but they expected it to taper off once refilled. On November 10th the ONRPP was at $1,032.720B which means we're now down 16% since they expected it to taper off. As for the TGA, Janet had it refilled to $857B on October 24th and as of today it is down again to $693B (also down 4.8% from November 21st close of $728B). There are another ~$250B worth of bills going out to auction on November 27th and 28th and this doesn't factor anything for December she may offer. So we have the fed balance sheet, reverse repo, and TGA all draining at the same time. Sure banks are flush with cash but something has to break here at some point. I can't see how the fed would continue with QT at this pace. Anyone with more insight I would love some input as I am possibly misunderstanding things, but seems we're moving towards some liquidity drain soon. Fiscal spending looks to have no intention of restraining itself. I mentioned the issues reported from the ECB on their shadow banks plus insolvency with Zhongzhi Enterprise Group Co., but even now India's shadow banks are at risk: India's shadow banks are bracing for a cost spike and a credit squeeze Fitch released an article that US leveraged loan default rate pushed above 3% As for TSLA, they are getting some pressure now in Sweden with the strikes. Strikes seem to be getting to Musk as well: Link to full Tweet I would watch this because if he caves here, this could be a domino effect for Tesla in other areas like Germany. Could even spark the fight to unionize in the US if those employees see wins in Europe. Perhaps your shorts will become profitable soon enough. Perhaps I am early, but better to be safe and miss on gains than risk turning my profits this year into real losses. The month is not over but since October 31st close the S&P 500 is up 10.1%, NASDAQ 10.9%, and the Russell 8.7%. What happens if the savior of shopping in black Friday disappoints? Retailers offer bigger Black Friday discounts to lure hesitant shoppers hunting for the best deals -Sean