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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: johnd who wrote (5146)	2/17/1998 10:26:00 AM
From: Ed Schultz	Respond to of 74651

>>Please argue with me on the above points. I (almost) totally agree with you. Only I was being a bit more conservative and seeing earnings of around 3.60+ for the year which would put the range at 140 - 200. The only reason I think it will be much higher (240) is in anticipation of NT5 which should ship by end of year or early next year. Either way, with the stock at 160 you have a downside of 20 points and an upside of 40-80 on a rock solid company! This is what I call good investing.

To: johnd who wrote (5146)	2/17/1998 12:08:00 PM
From: jim shiau	Respond to of 74651

>I expect MSFT to do $4.00+ in Calender year 98 EPS. A 5 year average PE of 35 could put the stock at 140 by Jan 99 (or 70 after split) MSFT changed the accounting method 2 yrs ago to push some defer earning into the future qrts which make it very difficult to value it just based on the trailing earning. Another, if you check the good quality Dow stocks, such as GE, KO, MRK, JNJ, GM, etc, you will find their growth rate are around 5% to 15%, but their trailing PE are 30 - 40. Like what you just said that "MSFT tracks the DOW more than the NASDAQ for daily fluctuations", I will say that "if Dow stays overvalue, MSFT will stays overvalue too".