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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Clint E. who wrote (15261)2/20/1998 11:06:00 AM
From: j g cordes  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 68294
 
Hi Clint, trust all is well with you. I'm relying on your judgement to confirm my getting back into APLX. Currently at 5 9/16-11/16ths.
All they need to do is announce they're in Y2k solutions :~).

Jim



To: Clint E. who wrote (15261)2/21/1998 12:30:00 PM
From: Johnny Canuck  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 68294
 
Hello Clint,

>>.One casual comment she made a few weeks ago was
>>something about buying LU and CSCO and forgetting
>>about the rest.

They are both starting to look a little pricy at these levels.
They can't make a mistake. From a technology and management
point of view I have to agree with her though. I did find LU
management a little aggressive in some of their growth targets
in the last conference call. I am just starting to get a feel for the
management at LU.

>>. Barring any negative earnings report from DELL and
>>HWP, NAZ should make a new HI this week.

Nice call. Let's see if we move higher next week or consolidate
without the effect of options expiration.

>>BTW, Is there a Sally??!!!

Not that I know of. Interesting point about people that have their
origins in China. Traditionally, all the Lew's , Wong's etc come
from one specific village/region of the country. It is a throw
back to the agricultural based society. There is not a lot
of mobility in that society as you are tied to the land and the use
of the land is passed on from generation to generation.

There was no conference call re-play for ADCT. It looks like they
are changing their forward guidance. They now say they
see no weakness in the demand from the carriers. I have a
call into Robert Switz at ADCT as Beth at Investor Relations
could not answer my questions. I have not received a return
phone call yet. I am curious to know what was the major factor
for the short fall this Q and what is the basis for the change in
guidance.

What is your opinion on CIEN? I know you traded it for a while.
I tend to stay away from IPO's so I don't know any specifics on
this company. Do they have a presence in OC192? I know
that NT and LU both have aggressive OC48 and OC192 programs
going. Both companies reported good demand and good sales in the
D-WDM area. It looks like CIEN has the same problem as SPCT
as 75 percent of their sales comes from 2 customers.

Have a good weekend.

Harry



To: Clint E. who wrote (15261)2/22/1998 4:56:00 AM
From: Johnny Canuck  Respond to of 68294
 
techweb.com

Question: I am interested in Qualcomm and
Comcast. What are your current thoughts on
these companies?

Answer: Qualcomm (QCOM): Company recently
pre-announced poor fiscal 2Q98 earnings.
Looks like revisions to EPS will be around
$1.35 for 1998 and $1.85 for 1999. Several
Korean players have added capacity to the
current available production of 12 MM CDMA
handset units causing a large over-supply of
CDMA handsets. Most analysts on the street
were too high anyway and their numbers are
coming down. If demand in Korea is softer than
expected or extended (which I think is a real
possibility), I would not like to be in the stock
right now. Also, rumblings that they are having
additional delays on their 800 MHz Q-Phone is
already weakening a soft Korean market. At
$47, it is not a good enough deal to step up.

Comcast (CMCSK): Will benefit from trends in
cable (strong) but they also have a lot of other
fires in the company, including a big one called
QVC. They like having their own content and
have a lot of fingers in the pie, including E!
Entertainment. The company just recently sold
its 27 percent interest in its U.K. operations
(Comcast UK Cable Partners Ltd) for 4.8
million shares of NTL Corp. (NTLI). 4Q97
(ending Dec 31) earnings will be released on
Feb 23. I expect core cable to be very strong.
Cellular division should be modestly improved.
QVC demonstrates the value of TV sales and
should see double digit growth. Cash flow
growth is more than 15 percent, and private
asset value for the stock is roughly $35/share
based on sum of the parts analysis with an
appropriate discount rate. At $33.50, there is
not much of a discount to fair value but the
sector is hot and it should participate. I still like
TCI better as a pure cable play.