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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Paul Senior who wrote (74468)12/6/2023 1:28:21 PM
From: E_K_S  Respond to of 78753
 
RE: Adecoagro S.A. (AGRO) 11.97 -0.38 (-3.08%)

Started tracking position in AGRO to add to my AG basket.

PE 6.8x; 2,65% div
$1.3 Billion market cap

Company has been FCF positive every year for the past 5 years. However, quarterly FCF is typically negative Q1 & Q2, then by harvest time Q3 & Q4 FCF positive.

Price still at the high end looking back at the 5 year chart so will add more shares if/when this trades at/below $10/share.

earnings estimate for 2024 $1.54/share



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Crop News:

  • Diversified Crops: AGRO operates across various crops in Argentina and Uruguay, including rice, soybeans, wheat, corn, and sugarcane. This diversification mitigates risks associated with individual crop performances.
  • Positive Yield Trends: The company has reported consistent positive trends in crop yields for most crops, driven by technological advancements, improved farming practices, and favorable weather conditions.
  • Climate Concerns: Recent weather events like droughts and La Niña have caused concerns about potential yield impacts in some regions. However, AGRO's diversified operations and focus on sustainable practices help mitigate these risks.
  • Focus on Sustainability: AGRO prioritizes sustainable agricultural practices, including precision agriculture, water management, and renewable energy, which contribute to long-term crop health and resilience.
Earnings Seasonality:

  • Seasonal Trends: AGRO's earnings do exhibit some seasonality, with stronger performance typically observed in the second and third quarters. This aligns with the harvest cycles for key crops like soybeans and corn.
  • Market Volatility: Despite the seasonal trends, commodity prices and overall market conditions significantly impact AGRO's earnings, leading to fluctuations across quarters.
  • Management Guidance: AGRO provides annual and quarterly guidance on expected earnings, which helps investors understand potential seasonal trends and overall financial performance.
Additional Resources: