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To: Duane L. Olson who wrote (9843)	2/17/1998 10:37:00 AM
From: shane forbes	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25814

TSO: Re: What time frame would you guess this is going to take?... I see it starting in about 6 months or so..and the current market is driven by some smart money getting in ahead of the rush! Possible?? --- Yes certainly possible. But my guess is that the smart money is going to jump ship after the euphoria abates somewhat when the next earnings season comes along! Can't say for certain about time-frame. Suspect a couple of quarters at least maybe 3-4 at most. DRAM (any commodity) companies are like bulls in a china shop when things are going well. In 1996 the Korean bulls decided to continue capacity expansion hoping to price the weaker companies out of the market. Thus AMAT's enjoyed some nice fat DRAM related revenue. Ditto for part of 1997. Now fast forward 8-12 months (now). Koreans goofed. Dram demand could not absorb excess capacity. So expect the pipes to be shut off and continue to be shut off for the next little while for many of the DRAM guys in SEA. Thus expect AMAT to not see any revenue gains for next few q's. Thus think the semi-equips are buoyed up in a current bull frenzy that has little if any to do w/ fundamentals. Realize this is bursting the bubble and putting the champagne back in the bucket. But just don't see it any other way. Having pleaded case once again, I do expect the semi-equips to continue going up. Will be very interested to watch reaction to this week's BTB for semi-equips. Expect a weak number, esp. for front-end. I don't recommend buying when BTB is continuing to fall for the same reason that catching a falling knife creates stubs for what were once fully functional hands with opposable thumbs. No one knows how low the BTB will go. I don't expect it to go below 0.70 and 0.80 would be stretching it. (After all the 0.25u frenzy is still strong with the logic and MPU guys). But I do think we'll see BTB at least around 0.85 or so. This suggests at least 2-3 months more of falling BTB. Of course wild guessing on my part.