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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Harshu Vyas who wrote (74523)	12/14/2023 8:10:12 AM
From: Madharry	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78565

SANTA MONICA, Calif., Dec. 05, 2023 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Macerich (NYSE: MAC), one of the nation’s leading owners, operators and developers of major retail and mixed-use properties in top markets, today announced that Macerich’s joint venture that owns Tysons Corner Center has just closed a $710 million refinance on this high-quality property in Northern Virginia. The new CMBS loan, which closed on Monday, Dec. 4, bears a fixed interest rate of 6.60% with interest-only payments throughout the loan term, matures on Dec. 6, 2028, and replaces an existing $666 million loan that was scheduled to mature on Jan. 1, 2024. Tysons Corner Center is a 1.8 million square foot, super-regional retail powerhouse anchored by Nordstrom, Bloomingdale’s and Macy’s that attracts 16 million annual visits. While not serving as collateral for this new loan, the property is also home to numerous mixed uses, including office, residential and hospitality. Consistently among Macerich’s Top 10 Regional Town Centers, Tysons Corner Center generates $1,200 sales per square foot and had leased occupancy of 96% as of Q3 2023. “We are very pleased to complete this large refinancing, which had a very efficient execution,” said Scott Kingsmore, Macerich’s Senior Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. “Collectively, along with numerous other deals, we have completed $2.7 billion ($1.9 billion at Macerich’s share) of loan transactions in 2023, including the recent renewal of our corporate credit facility, which was closed in September.” "that seems to be pretty reasonable rate to pay for and interest only loan. I am still holding on to MAC as 2.5% position and hope for distribution increase in 2024." leased occupancy of 96% sounds awesome.

To: Harshu Vyas who wrote (74523)	12/14/2023 8:22:47 AM
From: Sean Collett	Respond to of 78565

I do not underestimate myself as I know what I am capable of and timing in commodities isn't it. I also not once said oil wasn't of value, but clearly stated timing is key. And I didn't give you the price of oil, I gave you the share price of OXY which hasn't broken $90/s in almost a decade. This includes after oil itself crashed in 2020 and then rebounded after. That five to ten year target you just gave makes sense...now are you going to lock your money up for that long? At five years if OXY hits $110/s that's only a 14% CAGR at this current price of $57/s. Again, better ways to put your money to work today. And respectfully, you have not demonstrated you will hold a company for longer than a few months so why would you think you will be holding OXY for longer-term? I also do not disagree with copying. That is what this forum is for so we can get ideas and potentially copy the folks here. Copying Buffett today is not the same as copying Dr. Burry or Druck and you know it. Buffett is sitting on FCF that rivals some countries and the way he invests is over a horizon that a retail investor isn't going to chase with success. Bringing up GEICO and using that to compare to Berkshire in 2023 isn't a fair comparison and you are aware of that. << Lastly, the political game is unimportant and a distraction>> Oil is one of the most politically driven assets that is out there. What will you do if OPEC+ continues to cut? What happens if China demand collapses as they enter recession (which is here by the way) while at the same time demand in the west slows? There are a ton of things that go into play here and oil is also being used as a pawn in many areas which reduces the margin of safety for today. Japan is a huge oil importer and with inflation risky there I am sure cheap oil is in their favor. US needs to refill the SPR so cheap oil is also in their favor too. No doubt OXY is of value, but when it achieves that value is a key component - having a time horizon is a important factor in investing. Good investing, Harshu. -Sean

To: Harshu Vyas who wrote (74523)	12/15/2023 5:45:37 PM
From: Paul Senior	Respond to of 78565

Harshu Vyas. I've different opinions from you in several areas. "Basic economics suggests shortage = higher prices = higher profits for those who sit on oil." There's commodity substitution to be a factor. Plus so many governments directing that other sources of power be developed to reduce dependency on fossil fuel. Higher future profits for those who sit on oil don't seem to me to be a given. Your idea seems to be your oil companies could/should sit on oil - a balance sheet play as oil becomes much more valuable in ten years. Okay, but I'm betting that oil companies can't just say, "Oil's now going to or at highs, let's pull up more oil and sell it." I'm betting that the big oil discoveries and big sources of oil will be offshore. With that I'm betting that new drill rigs will take a lot of time and money to be built, and only as oil companies can be sure of good demand and pricing for oil. If/as that happens, current drill ships will be in increasing demand, and the mothballed drill ships will slowly be put back to use. So I am buying the drill ships and associated companies. I'm holding oil stocks too - I like the ones which don't just drill/drill but also return capital to shareholders with dividends and maybe stock buy backs. For me, these stocks, like Chevron and small companies should then, in theory, be easier for me to hold for several years if there's not much capital appreciation happening. "Basic economics suggests shortage = higher prices = higher profits for those who sit on oil." I'm going elsewhere: Basic economics suggests shortage = higher prices = higher profits for those who sit on URANIUM. I continue to add to my uranium basket as these stocks move up with the rise in the price of uranium driving that. ======== You recently said you hold SKX (Skechers shoes). Fwiw, I've been a holder of various position sizes since at least 01/2012. I made some buys during the year, the latest being in October. With the stock rise this week, the company looks fully valued to me. Can't yet bring myself to drop to a stub, but I did sell about 1/4 of my position today. finance.yahoo.com