Ah yes, coming down to the wire now. Only four (or three +) trading days left in the contest.
Another decent week for the general markets (+1.2%), and even better for the biotech indices, though not as flashy as last week. Both biotech composite indices are now in the black for the YTD, not by lot but it’s certainly better than the red ink they were spilling during much of the second half of the year
Roughly three quarters of the stocks chosen by one or more portfolios showed a profit over last week. DNTH was the top performing stock last week (+76% of their price at the start of the contest.), good news for all three portfolios with a position in it, though a lot of this weeks advance was erasing the loss posted the previous week (-41%). Not a lot to explain about either effect. For what it’s worth, a significant fraction of the week’s gain took place in the last hour of trading for the week when much of the market tanked on relatively thin volume.
Second place LQDA (+68%) had almost too much news for the week: On Tuesday the Chief Medical Officer sold fifteen thousand shares, generating roughly $160k. On Wednesday, a US Federal Court Of Appeals affirmed a prior Patent office decision that LQDA had uncontested ownership of IP for a drug they will now submit to the FDA for immediate approval. On Thursday the Independent Director picked up $2M more stock, and on Friday several analysts upgraded their expected increase in revenues. Third place INZY for the week Added +38%, cementing their hold on the top spot for the YTD performance, now +320%. This week’s big loser was ALVR (-31% of the starting price). They provided some updates on a phase 3 clinical development program Friday morning and ALVR tanked going from $2.30/share on market close on Thursday to $0.76/share first thing Friday. So now ALVR is the 5th worst YTD performer (-85%). MOR was off -16% for the week, which wasn’t enough to disturb its third place position in the YTD ranks.
So on this penultimate report, it is nice to say that this week, EVERY portfolio was in the black for the week. The portfolio average gained $6.7k. When we get down to specifics, ALONER took the prize for the week, earning +$17.6k, roughly half of which was due to holding the top performing stock DNTH, but it didn’t hurt that all of their other picks were in the black for the week. ALONER went from second to fourth the previous report, changing places with RKRW, and in this week both ALONER and RKRW go pack to the positions they occupied two weeks ago, second and fourth YTD. Second place for the week, STEVE LOKNESS (+$12.8k), another investor in DNTH, kept his third place in the YTD standings. But ERIKOTTO, only sixth place return for the week, +$6k, still enough to keep ALONER from overtaking them to grab the top spot. ALONER is now $17k behind ERIKOTTO. A daunting but not impossible gap to cover in the final days of the contest.
Don’t forget to get your portfolios in as emails to libel-amalgam0b@icloud.com. See “The 2024 Contest simplified” for the format and other considerations.
Report Time Ranges
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From
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To
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Recent
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12/15/2023
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12/22/2023
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YTD
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12/31/2022
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Index Portfolios’ Performance
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Symbol
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Recent P/L
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Recent %
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YTD P/L
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^IXIC
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$1,710.73
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1.2%
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$43,247.51
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^NBI
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$1,826.94
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1.8%
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$1,865.76
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^SPSIBI
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$2,376.13
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2.3%
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$5,742.09
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Share Performance
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Recent Performance
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YTD Performance
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Top Five
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Bottom Five
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Top Five
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Bottom 5
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Symbol
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P/L / Initial Price
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Symbol
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P/L / Initial Price
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Symbol
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YTD P/L / Initial Price
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Symbol
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YTD P/L/ Initial Price
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DNTH
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76.1%
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ALVR
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-31.3%
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INZY
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321.0%
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AVTX
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-98.9%
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LQDA
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67.8%
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MOR
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-16.2%
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STTK
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187.0%
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APTA.L
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-97.6%
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INZY
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38.1%
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TGTX
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-12.5%
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MOR
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155.3%
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ACRS
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-93.2%
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OMER
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35.0%
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HUMA
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-10.0%
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LIAN
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151.4%
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TCON
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-87.9%
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DCTH
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22.8%
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QURE
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-8.6%
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CABA
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139.4%
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ALVR
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-85.1%
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Average and Median Portfolio Performance
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Recent P/L
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YTD P/L
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Avg.
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Median
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Avg
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Median
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$5,708.13
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$3,839.33
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TOMATO
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-$10,873.56
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-$20,625.93
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ARTHUR RADLEY
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Top Seven Portfolio Performances
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Top Recent Performers
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Top YTD Performers
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Contestant (Prev. Rank)
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Recent P/L
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P/L vs. ^SPSIBI
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YTD P/L (Rank)
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Contestant (Prev. Rank)
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YTD P/L
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vs. Top Portfolio
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P/L vs. ^SPSIBI
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Rec. P/L (Rank)
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1 - ALONER (15)
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$17,573.66
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$15,197.53
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$19,640.38 (2)
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1 - ERIKOTTO (1)
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$36,975.92
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——
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$31,233.84
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$6,007.05 (6)
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2 - STEVE LOKNESS (11)
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$12,760.24
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$10,384.11
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$18,828.66 (3)
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2 - ALONER (4)
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$19,640.38
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$17,335.55
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$13,898.29
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$17,573.66 (1)
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3 - BLADERUNNER (14)
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$10,193.17
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$7,817.03
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-$7,085.49 (7)
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3 - STEVE LOKNESS (3)
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$18,828.66
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$18,147.26
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$13,086.57
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$12,760.24 (2)
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4 - GENEGURU (8)
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$9,045.43
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$6,669.30
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-$26,243.77 (10)
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4 - RKRW (2)
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$14,536.68
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$22,439.25
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$8,794.59
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$2,172.73 (11)
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5 - BULBAMAN (7)
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$7,103.79
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$4,727.66
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-$25,460.77 (9)
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5 - A.J. MULLEN (5)
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$6,505.84
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$30,470.08
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$763.75
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$5,480.57 (7)
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6 - ERIKOTTO (3)
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$6,007.05
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$3,630.92
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$36,975.92 (1)
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6 - JACK HARTMANN (6)
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-$5,126.55
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$42,102.47
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-$10,868.63
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$2,197.33 (10)
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7 - A.J. MULLEN (4)
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$5,480.57
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$3,104.44
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$6,505.84 (5)
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7 - BLADERUNNER (7)
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-$7,085.49
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$44,061.41
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-$12,827.57
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$10,193.17 (3)
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Top Portfolios’ Contents
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Top Recent Performance Portfolio (ALONER)
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Top YTD Performance Portfolio (ERIKOTTO)
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Symbol (Rank)
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Current Allocation
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Value/Total | ROI
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YTD Stock P/L
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Recent Stock P/L
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% Current Price Change for $1,000 P/L
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Symbol (Rank)
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Initial Allocation
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Value/Total | ROI
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YTD Stock P/L
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Recent Stock P/L
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% Current Price Change for $1,000 P/L
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AFMD
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11.1%
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4.1% | -61.1%
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-$7,714.62
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$666.76
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20.4%
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CABA
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15.0%
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26.2% | 139.4%
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$20,902.70
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$2,578.38
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2.8%
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CDTX
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11.1%
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10.8% | 2.3%
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$286.34
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$1,645.79
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7.7%
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DAWN
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10.0%
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5.1% | -30.2%
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-$3,015.80
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$357.81
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14.3%
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CLSD
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11.1%
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10.0% | -5.2%
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-$662.76
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$115.05
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8.4%
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FULC
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10.0%
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6.3% | -13.7%
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-$1,373.63
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$1,222.53
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11.6%
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CRDF
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11.1%
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10.9% | 3.4%
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$430.38
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$621.83
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7.7%
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ICVX
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5%
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7.2% | 96.5%
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$4,823.68
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-$50.38
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10.2%
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CRIS
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11.1%
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12.4% | 17.4%
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$2,191.29
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$2,677.79
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6.7%
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INZY
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5%
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15.4% | 321.0%
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$16,047.62
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$1,904.76
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4.8%
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CRVS
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11.1%
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20.0% | 89.4%
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$11,290.94
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$2,391.89
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4.2%
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LIFE
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10.0%
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4.5% | -38.4%
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-$3,835.62
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$593.61
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16.2%
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KZIA
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11.1%
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6.2% | -41.0%
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-$5,182.53
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$167.40
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13.4%
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OCUL
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10.0%
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10.8% | 47.3%
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$4,733.10
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$747.33
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6.8%
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DNTH
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11.1%
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19.6% | 85.3%
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$10,777.45
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$8,613.36
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4.3%
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PDSB
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10.0%
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2.9% | -59.6%
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-$5,962.12
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$174.24
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24.8%
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MRNA
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11.1%
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6.0% | -43.0%
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-$5,427.97
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$673.79
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13.9%
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PRQR
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10.0%
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3.7% | -48.6%
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-$4,864.86
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-$675.68
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19.5%
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PRVB
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0.0%
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0.0% | 136.5%
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$13,651.84
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$0.00
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----
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URGN
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15.0%
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17.9% | 63.5%
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$9,520.86
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-$845.55
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4.1%
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