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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (203433)	12/29/2023 5:25:02 AM
From: carranza2	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 217632

The Chinese economy has Long Covid. It had a miserable year in 2023, and 2024 is likely to be even worse. Why? The Covid zero virus response was really, really stupid. Because zero Covid hit small businesses hard, the Chinese consumer has decelerated consumption. Why? Because there is no Chinese social safety net and a government stupid enough to do zero Covid, punching small businesses hard in the nose, cannot be trusted by consumers. Thus, they are saving, not consuming, to the detriment of the economy. If the yuan were freely convertible into USD, there would be a giant sucking sound as capital (managed, directed, disciplined, and minutely regulated by the CCP) flew hugely out of China. This is ultimately the test of an economy, is capital freely seeking opportunities interested in investing in any particular place? Foreign capital is leaving China and Chinese capital would leave but for non convertibility of the yuan. Which is the simple reason why the yuan will never be the world’s reserve currency. The yuan’s share of international trade transactions is in single digits. The USD’s? Oh, about 85%. And its growth will be tiny unless the yuan becomes convertible which will never happen because it would be the ruin of the Chinese economy, not to mention the end of CCP control. Self-goal, and eternal to boot. Lol! Some Austrians, those Chinese. Chinese government interference in the economy comes at a price because government always misallocates capital. What is the price? Stagnation. There is not enough gold the CCP can accumulate that would make a material difference. Lol! Delicious irony. China is screwed by its own government but screwed nonetheless. It needs another Deng-like economic volte face towards less regulation, less control. But there is no way that’s happening because Xi the Dumber for Life will never allow it. Control control and more control is baked into CCP DNA. China had it more or less right under Deng, saw fantastic progress, but Xi the Dumber is the anti-Deng. It is so obvious. The CCP is very unclever. austriancenter.com Watching the delicious irony unfold in real time. The problem for the world is that poor future Chinese economic fortunes will drive the CCP into tail-wagging dog territory military adventures to blame foreign devils for its failures. The typical response of failed dictatorships. We’ll see.