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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Harshu Vyas who wrote (74744)	12/31/2023 9:14:06 AM
From: Elroy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78770

I finished my first full year down 25%. Buy NGL on this first day of trading in 2024 for $5.50. It will easily be $10 on the first trading day of 2025. At that point a return to distributions will be on the near term horizon. For some historical perspective on NGL, here's key data points from when NGL's unit price ranged between $9 and $25. (EBITDA is trailing four quarters as reported on March Q (FY end) earnings release.) 2020 - LT debt = $3.15b, EBITDA = $590m 2019 - LT Debt = $1.264b, EBITDA = $440m 2018 - LT Debt = $1.71b, EBITDA = $408m 2017 - LT Debt = $2.15b, EBITDA = $381m 2016 - LT Debt = $2.341b, EBITDA = $424.1m NGL hasn't reported 2024 (Mar) results yet, but it's not unreasonable to expect it to look like 2024 - LT Debt = $2.6b, EBITDA = $650m EBITDA is growing. It's currently higher than the listed time period (when NGL was mostly above $10). NGL almost went bust, but didn't. Barring major unexpected disasters in their business lines (which is quite different from the periods above, in a good way) an MLP with higher EBITDA, growing EBITDA and manageable debt should trade significantly higher than the current price. Don't trade. Just buy NGL and hold, and a year from now tell us how you did. Don't trade. Don't trade. Don't trade.........

To: Harshu Vyas who wrote (74744)	1/1/2024 1:40:54 AM
From: Spekulatius	1 Recommendation Recommended By petal Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78770

Since we're doing this and since I want to be transparent, I finished my first full year down 25%. The math is brutal on declines in your portfolio. If you find yourself down 25%, you need to double from there to get back to your 50% return. It’s almost impossible to make up misses. Also, when you go for that high of a return, you are bound to make some terrible mistakes because it’s impossible to make this sort of return using stocks that aren’t risky. The my knowledge , there are no investors that have achieved this type of return with any reasonable amount of money for extended periods of times.a if they would , they would be billionaires within 15 years or so. I think it’s only possible if you run your own business and sort of make a concentrated bet on it.