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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: E_K_S who wrote (74821)	1/9/2024 5:16:22 AM
From: Harshu Vyas	Respond to of 78476

Truthfully, I don't know. It's still my smallest position in my portfolio behind WWW and CUTR. I bought Dell because it was an anomaly in that it was "cheaper" on a cash flow basis compared to all competitors. I also liked the management and strategy outlined in the 10K. (Michael) Dell has said dividends will increase 10%/year among other things. Naturally, you have to be sceptical but it's possible - especially, if this AI boom finds its way to less advantaged, but strategic companies. If I feel Dell is moving too fast, I'll sell - when I initially bought, I figured a 12x free cash flow multiple was not too onerous given the market circumstances. Of course, I'm trying to take advantage of this AI boom in the most "cheap" way possible. If there is little price movement, it depends on what's going on - are cash flows increasing? Are debt buybacks still occurring? What's the rest of "tech" doing? And if Dell halves, but the multiples have also halved, I'll buy more. That's just outright cheap. The only thing that may stop me from executing on this strategy would be if, say, a MSFT or AMZN more than halved. At that point, I'd have to re-evaluate. I don't really have a plan. If everything goes perfectly, than I'll hold until I feel the multiples are stupid and I'll sell. But, as I know, the best laid plans of mice and men... I think you just have to keep an eye on what's going on. But not too closely. That leads to overthinking and poor decision making (I made this mistake many times last year). Just close enough where you can still see the forest for the trees. My holding time is always dependent on what's going on. If I can snap up a 100% profit in a few months, I'll always take it. But if Dell has only appreciated 5% in six months, I'll continue to be patient. In your case, you may want to establish a stop loss level and then just raise that stop loss level 2% for every 5% move up for the stock. Have never used a stop loss but I know it's controversial. Will have to mull over it before I decide which way to go. I know this doesn't really answer your question, but it's because I don't really have a concrete strategy. Everything is subject to change. But, just to be clear, I do want to own Dell for as long as rationally possible.