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Technology Stocks : AMD, ARMH, INTC, NVDA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Vattila who wrote (53270)	1/28/2024 5:25:14 PM
From: neolib	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 72167

I'm just recalling the reaction after the Q3 report. In AH, AMD dropped like 5% (IIRC) quickly after the report, which was basically rather weak, no significant upside for the qtr, and Q4 guide wasn't great. It then recovered (all??) the lost ground during the CC when Lisa threw out the $2B in MI300 for 2024. The next morning, it once again briefly plunged about 4-5% (hitting the same lows as AH when the report first came) before going on to ramp through the day for nearly 10% gain, and that was off to the races after that. So now I'm asking myself what the likely reaction will be now. Several semis, TXN, INTC, have reported weakish prospects, and they have declined significantly. What does AMD need to do for the stock to hold steady? A modest beat, due to say better than Intel client/Epyc CPU sales won't do the trick, unless the gain is enormous and looks sustainable. We know console and embedded are going to be down, doubt there is much better than expected to be had from them. So its really down to AI GPU. If Lisa just sticks with the previous $2B for the year, that will be disaster. Something has to be upped significantly to support the current price. How much? If Lisa says $3B for 2024 will that do the trick?? I could see the stock heading for $200 if Lisa said Q4 had an additional $200B in AI GPU and the expected full year sales were now $4B. If instead there is a very modest beat on Q4 (i.e. $100M range) and Q1 guide is kind of weak like Intel, and $2B is maintained for MI300 for 2024, then I see $150 down to $140 pretty easily.