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Politics : The Exxon Free Environmental Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Wharf Rat who wrote (46152)1/29/2024 8:07:39 PM
From: Wharf Rat1 Recommendation

Recommended By
Ron

  Respond to of 48901
 
RealClimate: Climate model projections compared to observations

Since we have been periodically posting updates (e.g. 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2015, 2016 etc.) of model output comparisons to observations across a range of variables, we have now set up this page as a permanent placeholder for the most up-to-date comparisons. We include surface temperature projections from 1981, 1988, CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6, and MSU satellite products from CMIP5, and we will update this on an annual basis, or as new observational products become available. For each comparison, we note the last update date, and where the comparison was first discussed.

Note that Hausfather et al. (2020) made a more complete assessment of surface temperature projections from models from 1970 through to CMIP3 ( discussed here).

Global mean surface temperature anomaliesHansen et al (1981)


Original discussion (figure originally courtesy of Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Hansen et al. (1981)). Observations are the GISTEMP LOTI annual figures and 5 year mean. Last updated: 15 Jan 2024.

Hansen et al (1988)


Original discussion (2007), Last discussion (2018). Scenarios from Hansen et al. (1988). Observations are the GISTEMP LOTI annual figures. Trends from 1984: GISTEMP: 0.21ºC/dec, Scenarios A, B, C: 0.33, 0.28, 0.15ºC/dec respectively (all 95% CI ~±0.02 or 0.03). Last updated: 16 Jan 2024.

CMIP3 (circa 2004)


Last discussion (2015). Model spread is the 95% envelope of global mean surface temperature anomalies from all individual CMIP3 simulations (using the SRES A1B projection post-2000). Observations (GISTEMP) are the standard quasi-global estimates of anomalies with no adjustment for spatial coverage or the use of SST instead of SAT over the open ocean. Last updated: 12 Jan 2024.

CMIP5 (circa 2011)

CMIP5 ensemble projections with observational record overlaid.
Last discussion (2015). Model spread is the 95% envelope of true global mean surface temperature anomalies from all CMIP5 historical simulations (using the RCP4.5 projection post-2005). Forcing adjustment is updated from Schmidt et al. (2014). Observations are the standard quasi-global estimates of anomalies with no adjustment for spatial coverage or the use of SST instead of SAT over the open ocean. Last updated: 15 Jan 2024.


As above, but using the blended SST/SAT product from the CMIP5 models produced by Cowtan et al (2015) instead of the pure SAT field. Note that this makes about a 0.05ºC difference in 2022 (compared to a 0.1ºC difference estimated from the forcings adjustment above). Last updated: 15 Jan 2024.

CMIP6 (circa 2021)

The latest phase of CMIP has been ongoing since around 2019, and now has sufficient models to provide a basis for projections going forward. These models used observed boundary conditions (GHG levels, deforestation, solar, volcanoes etc.) up to 2014, and projections based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) from 2015 onwards. The same caveat with respect to the comparison to the blended SAT/SST observations stands as with CMIP5, but this is a relatively small effect (i.e. it’s expected to be around 0.05ºC in 2022). Note however, that some CMIP6 models have climate sensitivities outside both the CMIP5 range and the range constrained by observations. Thus in these figures, we plot the full mean (1 ensemble member per model) and the mean of a subset of the models that have a transient climate response (TCR) within the likely constrained range [1.4,2.2]ºC as assessed by IPCC AR6 ( Hausfather et al., 2022).

Surface temperature changes in CMIP6 models, using a screened ensemble and a fuller ensemble (37 models).
Model spread is the 95% envelope of surface air temperature anomalies using 37 model simulations from the historical runs and SSP2-4.5. TCR values used in the screen are Hausfather et al. (2022). Last updated: 12 Jan 2024.


Satellite-derived atmospheric temperaturesTMT (global and tropical means) (timeseries and trends)





Original discussion (Jan 2017). Mid-troposphere satellite products from UAH, RSS, NOAA STAR and UW (Po-Chedley et al, tropical values only – not yet updated to 2023). Model values use synthetic MSU/AMSU-TMT weightings, spread is 95% envelope of simulations. Last updated: 15 Jan 2024.

Corrected-TMT (Tropical means) (timeseries and trends)



Original discussion Mar 2023. The TMT-corrected diagnostic (where the TMT is adjusted by the lower stratospheric changes (TLS)) in a 24-model subsample of the CMIP6 database (Po-Chedley et al., 2021) compared to RSS v4, UAH v6 and NOAA STAR v5. Plots includes the full ensemble, and then a subset of models that have a TCR within the IPCC AR6 likely range. Model values use synthetic TMT-corrected weightings, spread is 95% envelope of simulations. Last updated: 15 Jan 2023.

Global SST changes



Original discussion 3/19/2023. Global mean SST trends in CMIP6 compared to HadSST4 and ERSSTv5. As above, models are screened using the TCR criterion. The models are a 15-model subset from the U. Melbourne collation. Last updated 15 Jan 2023.

SSU trends



Original discussion 5/21/23. Global mean SSU trends for three channels (NOAA-STAR v3.0) compared to a 9-member subset of the CMIP6 archive. Last updated 1/25/24.

If you have suggestions for additional comparisons, stylistic changes, clarifications etc., please leave a comment on the latest open thread. You can use these figures anywhere (with a citation and link back to RealClimate).

References
  1. Z. Hausfather, H.F. Drake, T. Abbott, and G.A. Schmidt, "Evaluating the Performance of Past Climate Model Projections", Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 47, 2020. dx.doi.org
  2. J. Hansen, D. Johnson, A. Lacis, S. Lebedeff, P. Lee, D. Rind, and G. Russell, "Climate Impact of Increasing Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide", Science, vol. 213, pp. 957-966, 1981. dx.doi.org
  3. J. Hansen, I. Fung, A. Lacis, D. Rind, S. Lebedeff, R. Ruedy, G. Russell, and P. Stone, "Global climate changes as forecast by Goddard Institute for Space Studies three-dimensional model", Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, vol. 93, pp. 9341-9364, 1988. dx.doi.org
  4. G.A. Schmidt, D.T. Shindell, and K. Tsigaridis, "Reconciling warming trends", Nature Geoscience, vol. 7, pp. 158-160, 2014. dx.doi.org
  5. K. Cowtan, Z. Hausfather, E. Hawkins, P. Jacobs, M.E. Mann, S.K. Miller, B.A. Steinman, M.B. Stolpe, and R.G. Way, "Robust comparison of climate models with observations using blended land air and ocean sea surface temperatures", Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 42, pp. 6526-6534, 2015. dx.doi.org
  6. Z. Hausfather, K. Marvel, G.A. Schmidt, J.W. Nielsen-Gammon, and M. Zelinka, "Climate simulations: recognize the ‘hot model’ problem", Nature, vol. 605, pp. 26-29, 2022. dx.doi.org



To: Wharf Rat who wrote (46152)1/30/2024 8:16:37 PM
From: Wharf Rat  Respond to of 48901
 
Extreme Temperature Diary- Tuesday January 30, 2024/ Main Topic: Applause for Biden’s Liquified Natural Gas Decision – Guy On Climate

Dear Diary. One of the biggest aspects of V.P. Al Gore’s an Inconvenient Truth is that fighting the climate crisis will really hurt…fossil fuel interests that is. Those wanting to make a quick buck from drilling and mining from infrastructure already in place mostly don’t want to invest in green energy. Why doing so will hurt their bottom line. But in reality, these interests might make more money in the long run while doing a lot of good for the planet.

During the early part of the 21st century any energy transition has been painful for some. People in general do not like change, and in a world getting hungrier for energy any change involving sacrifice will be met with stiff resistance. Just ask historians what happened during the late 1970s when President Jimmy Carter wanted the U.S. to buckle up for a transition to renewables. The backlash gave us the era of Reagan with petroleum spigots flowing wild and free.

Natural gas was a so called “bridge fuel” that was applauded by both fossil fuel interests and environmentalists alike during the 2000s. With the advent of fracking that decade it became much more plentiful. Gradually during the 2010s it became apparent that the stuff leaked into the atmosphere all too easily, so natural gas became much frowned upon. After all, methane is a much more portend greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide. During the 2020s we have huge ships to transport profitable liquified natural gas around the planet, which is a big no no. As climate activist Bill McKibben would agree, if it comes from the ground, keep it in the ground.
President Biden is now the only bulwark that may keep yet another damn of fossil fuel use from bursting. I’m not satisfied with his half measures on the climate, but Trump will be far worse than Reagan ever was should he regain power. Here are many more details from the Washington Post on his latest decision to curtail liquified natural gas exports:

Biden stalls natural gas exports that activists call ‘climate bombs’ – The Washington Post

U.S. stalls gas export projects that activists say are ‘climate bombs’The White House decision delays new liquefied natural gas terminals, a victory for environmental groups that President Biden is courting in his reelection bidBy Maxine Joselow and Evan Halper

Updated January 26, 2024 at 12:44 p.m. EST|Published January 26, 2024 at 5:00 a.m. EST

A demonstrator protests liquefied natural gas exports on March 8 outside an energy conference in Houston. (Bloomberg News/Getty Images)

President Biden weighed in decisively in favor of climate activists fighting new fossil fuel development on Friday, deciding to pause the approval of new liquefied natural gas projects because of their danger to the planet, even in the face of criticism that the delay could hurt U.S. energy businesses.

The presidential directive, which requires the Energy Department to study the climate impact of new gas exports, could delay the approval of nearly a dozen fossil fuel projects past the November election. That could help Biden court young voters who consider such facilities to be “climate bombs” and who were angered by the administration’s approval of a massive drilling project in Alaska. But it risks antagonizing other interests, including foreign allies, fossil fuel companies and Republican lawmakers.

Many liquefied natural gas, or LNG, export facilities are in communities of color on the Gulf Coast and other parts of the country. Biden said in a statement that the climate review came in response to pleas from young activists and members of these communities.

“While MAGA Republicans willfully deny the urgency of the climate crisis, condemning the American people to a dangerous future, my Administration will not be complacent,” he said. “We will not cede to special interests. We will heed the calls of young people and front-line communities who are using their voices to demand action from those with the power to act.”

The decision represents the latest difficult choice Biden has faced over high-profile parts of his agenda. During early deliberations, it sparked a heated internal debate within the administration over national security concerns, according to two people familiar with the matter who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to comment publicly.

Biden’s top climate aides, including White House National Climate Adviser Ali Zaidi and clean energy senior adviser John Podesta, advocated for considering the climate consequences of gas exports, the two people said. But early on, top national security officials, including senior energy adviser Amos Hochstein and Secretary of State Antony Blinken, voiced concerns about curtailing gas exports to European allies in the event of another geopolitical conflict such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

In the end, the national security officials were satisfied with the final decision, since the United States will continue to supply gas to Europe, even with the climate review, the people said.

“As our exports increase, we must review export applications using the most comprehensive, up-to-date analysis of the economic, environmental and national security considerations,” Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm told reporters during a Thursday call previewing the announcement, adding that her department could make exceptions due to national security emergencies.

Zaidi told reporters on the call that “the United States has been an unwavering partner to our allies in Europe, who, by the way … are our partner in calling for a transition away from fossil fuels.”

The New York Times first reported the administration’s decision, after Politico reported the White House was considering a climate review of LNG exports. Hochstein and a State Department spokesman did not respond to requests for comment.

The United States is already a powerhouse in energy production, with its LNG exports playing a crucial role in helping Europe break free of its reliance on Russian gas. The question of approving additional gas exports has enormous environmental and political stakes: Allowing these facilities could lock in dependence on fossil fuels for decades to come, while pausing them could cede a future market to rivals and raise anxieties about global energy security.

Halting the expansion of LNG exports has become a top priority of environmentalists in recent months. Before news of the administration’s decision broke, several environmental groups had been planning a “Stop LNG” sit-in outside the Energy Department in early February.

The author and climate activist Bill McKibben, who had been preparing to attend the sit-in, this week declared victory. “It’s pretty clearly the win,” he wrote in a text message to The Washington Post.

The administration’s decision has cast uncertainty over a mammoth LNG project on the Louisiana coast known as Calcasieu Pass 2, or CP2. The project is closer to becoming operational than nine other proposed LNG terminals, since it has already secured financing and customers and is awaiting federal permits.

A flare burns at Venture Global’s liquefied natural gas plant in Cameron, La., on April 21, 2022. (Martha Irvine/AP)

Shaylyn Hynes, a spokeswoman for the project’s owner, Venture Global, said in an email that “it appears the administration may be putting a moratorium on the entire U.S. LNG industry. Such an action would shock the global energy market, having the impact of an economic sanction, and send a devastating signal to our allies that they can no longer rely on the United States.”

Germany last year signed a deal to purchase about 2.21 million metric tons a year of LNG for 20 years from CP2. Stephan Gabriel Haufe, a spokesman for the German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action, declined to comment on the Biden administration’s decision. But he said in an email that in general, “the German government has taken numerous measures to ensure security of supply, so we are currently not seeing any effects here.”

In a letter this week to the Biden administration, a coalition of fossil fuel industry groups blasted the decision as misguided. The groups, including the American Petroleum Institute and the Independent Petroleum Association of America, argued that limiting U.S. LNG exports would increase global emissions, since the gas could replace coal, the dirtiest fossil fuel.

“One of the biggest things we can do for the environment is to send more U.S. LNG overseas to displace coal,” Mike Sommers, president and chief executive of the American Petroleum Institute, told reporters at an event in Washington this month. The institute used the event to launch an eight-figure ad campaign promoting fossil fuels as “vital” to energy security.

Former president Donald Trump, the front-runner for the GOP presidential nomination, said the decision would undermine America’s energy and national security. “Joe Biden has once again caved to the radical demands of the environmental extremists in his administration,” Trump campaign spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt said in a statement.

Republicans on Capitol Hill also slammed the climate review. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said on the Senate floor Wednesday that “it is abundantly clear that our adversaries are not waiting for us to wake up from this experiment in green self-harm.” House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) said in a Friday statement that stalling LNG terminals “not only prevents America’s economic growth, it empowers our adversaries like [Russian President] Vladimir Putin.”

Yet some analysts said pausing permit approvals would have little immediate impact on the flow of U.S. LNG exports to European allies. They said the move would not impede the eight LNG export projects currently operating, nor would it halt the 10 projects already approved and under construction.

“This is an issue about not the coming wave of LNG but a potential future wave of LNG,” said Ben Cahill, a senior fellow in the Energy Security and Climate Change Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

The United States now ranks as the world’s biggest LNG exporter after doubling its exports over the past four years. The projects already approved and under construction are expected to again double the potential volume of U.S. LNG exports by 2028. Almost all of these projects are along the Gulf Coast, mostly in an industrial region straddling Louisiana and Texas that is already home to hulking petrochemical plants.

Biden enraged young climate activists last year by approving the Willow oil drilling project in Alaska, even as the White House argued it was legally obligated to sanction it. But the greenhouse gas emissions associated with CP2 would be 20 times as large as those from Willow, according to an analysis by Jeremy Symons, an environmental consultant and former climate policy adviser at the Environmental Protection Agency.

“The Willow project was a carbon bomb, but the CP2 project is a megabomb when it comes to climate change,” Symons told The Post in an interview last year.

Some analysts said they view the administration’s decision as an olive branch to young voters, whom polls show prioritize climate action more than older generations.

“The president lost a lot of support after the Willow decision, especially among young folks,” said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group and an energy adviser in the George W. Bush administration. “I think the environmental community has put pressure on these projects and said, ‘Here’s where you can claw back some credibility on climate.’”

Two federal agencies are responsible for approving permits for LNG projects. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission must decide whether to authorize the siting and construction of projects, and the Energy Department must determine whether it’s in the “public interest” to export gas to countries with which the United States lacks a free-trade agreement.

The Energy Department has never determined that gas exports are not in the “public interest.” In response, environmental activists have pressured the department to overhaul its approach to better account for climate impacts.

Activists note that the main component of natural gas is methane, a powerful greenhouse gas that traps more heat in the atmosphere than carbon dioxide in the short term. They also warn that new LNG export terminals will be operational for decades, even as top climate scientists say humanity must rapidly phase out fossil fuels to avert catastrophic warming.

“Liquefied natural gas is an incredibly dirty fuel, and the scale of exports that the U.S. has built up over the last few years has enormous global climate implications,” said Abigail Dillen, president of the environmental law firm Earthjustice. “The fact that the president is taking it on is huge, and I think it is going to mobilize his climate base in an election year.”

By Maxine Joselow Maxine Joselow is a staff writer who covers climate change and the environment. Twitter

By Evan Halper Evan Halper is a business reporter for The Washington Post, covering the energy transition. His work focuses on the tensions between energy demands and decarbonizing the economy. He came to The Post from the Los Angeles Times, where he spent two decades, most recently covering domestic policy and presidential politics from its Washington bureau. Twitter

Here are more “ET’s” recorded from around the planet the last couple of days, their consequences, and some extreme temperature outlooks, as well as any extreme precipitation reports: