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To: Ron who wrote (5867)	1/31/2024 8:26:45 PM
From: Sun Tzu	1 Recommendation Recommended By Ron Respond to of 5882

In the late '90s early 2000s I was very active on Wall Street. A friend of mine and I independently calculated the value of the reserve printing press to be $500B/yr (in 1998 dollars). He stopped there, but I continued the work added in projections for demographics, political trends, and the anticipated global backlash. My work was based on parameters that would be nearly impossible to change. It had nothing to do with day-to-day politics or monetary and fiscal policies that have room to change. My original estimate was that the beginning of the end - what the article calls "the cliff" to be somewhere around 2030 - 2040, depending on what else happens. Over the years I've made minor adjustments as new information came in, but this is the kind of model that chugs along just fine. Long story short, I now think the tipping point will come sooner, somewhere between 2028 - 2038, which puts its middle smack where Talib thinks we'll hit the cliff. But I think they are too optimistic. I think it will come ~2030. The reason is that (1) They are not projecting the US political dynamics enough. They are just looking at the current debt levels. And (2) they are not anticipating the foreign moves. Yes, they are looking at the foreign appetite for US debt and see a cliff. But they don't expect that the USD will lose its reserve status. I do. By 2028, the reserve printing press is worth (in then dollars) about one trillion dollars. When it goes away, the shock will arrive just as the US needs it the most. And the double whammy will make it so much worse than anyone anticipate. File this under my USD tick-tock clock.