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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (3102)	2/17/1998 7:09:00 PM
From: Kip518	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18691

Roger, with all due respect, I appreciate your good sense on the general market and many of the shorts you follow. And, you may be right about Y2K being overblown & TAVA's (TPRO) price not being justified by earnings. But TAVA has just begun a parabolic move, much like ZITL and IOM during the crazy days. Watch it closely. You are known for sensible stops. Please use one here. Kip

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (3102)	2/17/1998 11:15:00 PM
From: David Smith	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

Roger, I enjoy following the thread and agree with many of your observations about the market. I recently had an experience which I mentioned on another thread, but thought it would be appropriate to relay it here as well. Recently, while on vacation in New Mexico, I pulled up to a tiny roadside outpost about 100 miles from the nearest town...literally in the middle of nowhere. The place was dilapidated, and I was sure I wasn't going to be able to find the cup of coffee I was looking for. I walked into the place and found an 80 year-old Indian woman, whose main business seemed to be peddling tribal artifacts to any tourists who stopped by. There was almost nothing in the place. There was, however, a working color television, and that elderly Indian woman was intently watching a live report from the floor of the NYSE on CNBC. I asked her if she followed the market, and she smiled and opened a drawer packed with brokerage and mutual fund statements. She explained that she had 9 mutual funds, and had recently bought a satellite dish (which was indeed outside) so she could follow the action every day, minute by minute. She said that she used to drive an hour every few days to go to an Indian casino, but gave it up when she discovered the stock market. For some reason, that last revelation was less than comforting to me. Reflecting on the experience afterwards, I decided that when the stock market becomes an integral part of the lives of little old Indian women at trading posts in the middle of New Mexico, we are either at the dawn of what will be a bear-crushing surge to Dow 20,000, or at the precipice of a financial apocalypse that make 1929 and 1987 look walks in the park. The optimist in me favors the former, while the contrarian in me can't help but respect the possibility of the latter.

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (3102)	2/18/1998 5:19:00 AM
From: Mr Logic	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

Roger, >>I am just not a y2k believer, the problem is overblown<< Y2k is a major issue and is the catalyst or direct reason for a lot of corporate $ spending at the moment. I think you are right in one sense, that the issue is overblown in terms of how much money will be spent fixing the problem rather than installing replacement systems or getting certificated s/w or h/w version from original suppliers. What astounds me is that the market valuation of many of these stocks appears to take very little account of what happens when the work dries up. In this sense TPRO/TAVA is not the worst as their y2k revenues are not the highest % of total. Look at ACLY, selling code that fixes the problem. I'd be surprised if they make more than beer money in new licence revenue beyond mid 99, but Mr Market says $4m revenue today justifies $200m market cap. P.