Is it irrational exuberance that is responsible for the continued improvements in the markets? Or is it all just a plot to misdirect our attention from the Taylor Swift psyop now underway? In any case, the NASDAQ Composite grew by 2.3% over the week. The S&P Biotech index exceeded that with +3.5% for the week, more than enough to put it back in the black YTD. The NASDAQ biotech composite, on the other hand, shed -0.2% of its value tis week, still hanging on to a YTD profit by a fingernail.
In contrast to our usual weekly reports, this time there were actually a number reported events that might be tied in with particular stocks’ performance.
The top stock for the week is JSPR, +70%, one of the high (and chaotic) fliers from last year. This one week’s performance is enough to catapult JSPR into second place for the YTD winners (+123%). And this week there might be an explanation for the performance: Tuesday morning JSPR announced the offering price of $12.95 a share (Monday’s closing price) for an underwritten public placement that should bring in $50M (gross proceeds). Clearly the market expects big things from this cash infusion. At the previous week’s close of $12.03, the offering is priced at a 7.6% premium. Buit by the end of the week JSPR closed at $17.59, making the placement a 26% discount, certain to sell out. (The story was very different for CNSP’s public placement last week.).
FHTX gave the second place return for the week (+46%), because the pre-clinical performance of one of its products was good enough that their partner Eli Lilly, has selected it for clinical development. This was almost enough to completely remove its YTD deficit, and its status as second worst YTD performer.
PYXS was third for the week (+44%), wiping out the previous week’s (-15% loss), keeping it in first place YTD (+149%) ahead of JSPR.
And in fourth place VKTX added +38% for the week, thanks to a Thursday morning fourth quarter earnings call where it announced moving up its timeline for its obesity treatment, giving Lily a run for its money. This was good enough for their CEO, who during the course of Thursday sold 269 thousand shares, and another 45 thousand shares on Friday, dropping more than $9 million into his bank account (before taxes), to which the market responded by sending the market price higher.
Finally, fitth place for the week, LRMR (+35%) moved onto the YTD top winners, also at fifth (+70%).
The big loser for the week is BTAI, -32%. They had a number of press-release worthy events of the week. On Monday, the Patent Office affirmed their exclusivity for a potential acute treatment of agitation for Alzheimer’s patients. On Tuesday, they announced the completion of enrollment for a phase one trial led by Georgetown University. Neither produced much market response. In contrast their was an immediate drop of -30% at the opening of the market on Thursday, after the announcement of a proposed public offering for $60 million in common stock, though no price point was disclosed. This amounts to a dilution in the value of an individual share by 40% in terms of the market cap, so only a -32% drop in price might be interpreted that the market thought some value might accrue from the huge dollop of capital.
The second worst performer for the week, VERU (-17%) also had a number of events: Tuesday it trumpeted the usually unremarked FDA issuing an “IND Clearance” to advance the clinical trial to stage II of a drug to preserve muscle function while a subject uses a GLP-1 drug for weight loss. Thursday ia press release covered Q1 Financial Highlights, But the big drop did not occur until after Fridays’s Q1 “earnings call” covering those same highlights. This week’s loss plus a series of earlier bad weeks for VERU added it to the YTD big loser list at second place.
This was the third straight week of generally positive news for the contest portfolios, adding +$6k to the average portfolio value. All but two portfolios turned in net gain for the week, and the number of YTD portfolios in the black increased by one to ten.
The top contestant for the week is BLADERUNNER (+$19k). Like last year, their portfolio has a position in JSPR, but this was responsible for less than half of this weeks gain. Four other choices returned profits between +$1.4k to +$3.1k, and not a single choice was in the red for the week. This took them from eight to third in the YTD standings (+$22k). Second place for the week is ERIKOTTO, having chosen two top stocks, both for this week and YTD, PYXS and LRMR. This was enough to push them past BULBAMAN into top portfolio YTD: +$35k, though BULBAMAN is only $1.4k behind them.
TECHNIETIUM, again in fourth for the week (+$10.8k), rose another position to sixth YTD (+$15k).
Report Time Ranges
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From
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To
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Recent
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2/2/24
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2/9/2024
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YTD
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12/31/2023
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Index Portfolios’ Performance
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Symbol
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Recent P/L
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Recent %
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YTD P/L
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^IXIC
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$2,409.58
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2.3%
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$6,523.80
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^NBI
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-$230.03
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-0.2%
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$143.62
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^SPSIBI
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$3,438.14
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3.5%
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$1,951.50
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Share Performance
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Recent Performance
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YTD Performance
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Top Five
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Bottom Five
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Top Five
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Bottom 5
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Symbol
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P/L / Initial Price
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Symbol
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P/L / Initial Price
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Symbol
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YTD P/L / Initial Price
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Symbol
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YTD P/L/ Initial Price
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JSPR
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70.5%
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BTAI
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-32.2%
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PYXS
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148.9%
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CNSP
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-78.1%
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FHTX
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46.4%
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VERU
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-16.7%
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JSPR
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122.9%
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VERU
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-47.3%
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PYXS
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44.4%
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ZLAB
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-14.0%
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TNYA
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75.3%
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KZIA
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-38.3%
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VKTX
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38.3%
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ONVO
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-11.7%
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PMN
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74.8%
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RVNC
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-32.8%
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LRMR
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35.4%
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AMGN
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-11.1%
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LRMR
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70.5%
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PACB
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-32.3%
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Average and Median Portfolio Performance
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Recent P/L
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YTD P/L
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Avg.
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Median
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Avg
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Median
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$5,962.30
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$4,808.29
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TRACE I11
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$8,294.42
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$4,027.56
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TOMATO
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Top Seven Portfolio Performances
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Top Recent Performers
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Top YTD Performers
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Contestant (Prev. Rank)
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Recent P/L
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P/L vs. ^SPSIBI
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YTD P/L (Rank)
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Contestant (Prev. Rank)
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YTD P/L
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vs. Top Portfolio
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P/L vs. ^SPSIBI
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Rec. P/L (Rank)
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1 - BLADERUNNER (7)
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$18,630.45
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$15,192.31
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$21,575.99 (3)
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1 - ERIKOTTO (2)
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$34,695.32
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——
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$32,743.82
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$16,109.01 (2)
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2 - ERIKOTTO (2)
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$16,109.01
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$12,670.87
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$34,695.32 (1)
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2 - BULBAMAN (1)
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$33,296.48
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$1,398.84
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$31,344.97
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$10,767.32 (5)
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3 - RAJU_BIJLEE (6)
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$12,425.18
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$8,987.04
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$19,884.53 (4)
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3 - BLADERUNNER (8)
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$21,575.99
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$13,119.32
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$19,624.49
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$18,630.45 (1)
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4 - TECHNETIUM (4)
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$10,804.55
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$7,366.41
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$15,322.84 (6)
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4 - RAJU_BIJLEE (4)
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$19,884.53
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$14,810.79
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$17,933.02
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$12,425.18 (3)
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5 - BULBAMAN (3)
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$10,767.32
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$7,329.18
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$33,296.48 (2)
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5 - ARTHUR RADLEY (3)
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$16,292.44
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$18,402.88
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$14,340.93
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$3,498.13 (11)
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6 - STEVE LOKNESS (9)
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$7,029.09
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$3,590.95
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-$2,982.34 (13)
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6 - TECHNETIUM (7)
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$15,322.84
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$19,372.48
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$13,371.34
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$10,804.55 (4)
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7 - JR_95 (8)
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$4,997.39
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$1,559.25
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$11,710.43 (7)
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7 - JR_95 (5)
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$11,710.43
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$22,984.89
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$9,758.93
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$4,997.39 (7)
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8 - TOMATO (14)
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$4,860.01
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$1,421.88
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$4,027.56 (9)
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8 - TRACE I11 (6)
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$10,089.53
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$24,605.79
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$8,138.02
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$4,808.29 (9)
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Top Portfolios’ Contents
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Top Recent Performance Portfolio (BLADERUNNER)
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Top YTD Performance Portfolio (ERIKOTTO)
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Symbol (Rank)
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Initial Allocation
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Value/Total | ROI
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YTD Stock P/L
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Recent Stock P/L
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% Current Price Change for $1,000 P/L
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Symbol (Rank)
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Initial Allocation
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Value/Total | ROI
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YTD Stock P/L
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Recent Stock P/L
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% Current Price Change for $1,000 P/L
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BCAB
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10.00%
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9.2% | 11.8%
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$1,178.86
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$2,439.02
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8.9%
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GLTO
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10.00%
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6.4% | -13.9%
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-$1,387.50
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-$18.06
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11.6%
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CRDF
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20.00%
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20.1% | 22.3%
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$4,459.46
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$2,972.97
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4.1%
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INSM
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10.00%
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6.8% | -8.8%
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-$884.16
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$22.59
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11.0%
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CRIS
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10.00%
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6.7% | -18.4%
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-$1,835.29
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$125.49
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12.2%
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LIFE
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15.00%
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15.6% | 39.7%
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$5,957.45
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$2,234.04
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4.8%
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GLYC
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10.00%
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11.5% | 39.4%
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$3,940.68
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$1,440.68
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7.2%
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LRMR
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15.00%
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19.0% | 70.5%
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$10,582.42
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$5,307.69
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3.9%
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IMMP
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10.00%
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8.0% | -2.5%
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-$250.00
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$958.33
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10.3%
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OCUL
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15.00%
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14.2% | 27.4%
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$4,103.14
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$1,681.61
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5.2%
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IOVA
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20.00%
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18.6% | 12.9%
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$2,583.03
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$3,148.83
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4.4%
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PYXS
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5.00%
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9.2% | 148.9%
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$7,444.44
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$2,222.22
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8.0%
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JSPR
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10.00%
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18.3% | 122.9%
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$12,294.04
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$7,046.89
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4.5%
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SERA
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5.00%
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5.3% | 42.0%
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$2,098.66
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$693.98
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14.1%
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REPL
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10.00%
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7.6% | -7.9%
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-$794.78
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$498.22
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10.9%
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TNYA
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10.00%
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13.0% | 75.3%
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$7,530.86
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$3,487.65
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5.7%
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TPST
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15.00%
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10.6% | -5.0%
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-$750.00
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$477.27
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7.0%
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