To: Gregg who wrote (9526 ) 2/18/1998 12:41:00 PM From: Mark Finger Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 14631
>>Know how to read ? Anyone bad mouthing IFMX, can you read ? >>This release says it all. The company is on the verge of explosive >>growth ! Read and you shall see. Were you actually considering the message you responded to, or what that just a convenient place to attach to (i.e., the last post)? The topic being discussed in that post had little or nothing to do with whether there would or would not be explosive growth, but rather the positioning of certain products. On the topic that you mention: First, I thought that was a very positive announcement, and had a lot of good points--especially the displacement of Sybase in one account and the wins in competitive situations against Sybase and Oracle. However, several of the companies mentioned are either already IFMX accounts (like Fidelity and AMA), and at least one is the repeat of several earlier PR releases (Egghead). Further, many of the companies seem to be smaller accounts. How many were Fortune 100 or even 500. In other words, it would appear that many of the wins would be in the $500K to $2M range, and some might even be below the $500K range, but were included because they were wins in the area of new categories or new technology. It takes a lot of these wins each quarter to really build the big sales results for a quarter. In particular, I have not seen the bigger $10M or larger deals in the last 2 quarters--the last seem to be Q2 97 when there were 2-3 such large deals (especially the Italian telephone company). The problem with explosive growth is that it takes time to develop in the DBMS area, because most sales cycles take 9-12 months. IFMX had its problems because they made a number of mistakes in its sales focus and allowed its sales pipeline to be nearly drained about a year ago. They had to rebuild that pipeline. It appears that they are doing a reasonable job of doing that and moving product both directly and indirectly (i.e., the $30M represents indirect sales through VAR's--see the notes on "partners" in the previous post). Personally, I believe that IFMX still has some recovery to do, and I would be extremely happy to see them match the current $180M sales of this quarter (especially if the license sales match the $104M) in the Q1 report in April. The first thing to do is to convince customers and analysts that last quarter was not just a one quarter result (in terms of quarters and profits), but rather that the sales will continue to produce. Personally, I think there is some "excessive optimism" on this thread. I wish it were true of what some of you wish (I need the higher prices in the next month). But if I am realistic, I think that $15 by year end and $25 by end of 1999 are very reasonable optimistic projections. Mark