To: bearshark who wrote (7652 ) 2/10/2024 10:09:45 AM From: robert b furman Read Replies (1) | Respond to Chart update:stockcharts.com Semiconductors (56 stocks)_ I suspect the four wave reverses and takes some time putting in a final wave 5 of the Cwave down. I'll believe it when price breaks through 37 ish. Sure does look like Cohu execs enjoyed buying up some shares at the $31.00 range (note slight uptick in volume). Guidance announced to be below this Q4 (which will be within guidance) in Q1 created a good buying opportunity (which bearshark got a bite on it - good trading bear!). I like how semi chips are working through a selected inventory glut and new AI chips are surfacing to be from more than just Nvidia. The chips act will be boosting equipment sales in the short term future, so we are slugging our way through another equipment trough. When the outside of the Fabs are finished, new advanced equipment will be installed, tested and ramped up into production, then the boost of more orders will be in full strength and we'll see some stellar earnings. It's a reasonable approach to be nibbling on the final dip (assuming wave 5 does come), and finish the dipping C wave. The other approach will be buying the breakout if/when we get price over 37ish. Best money maker will be doing both and a stop loss on the 37 break out - depending on your risk tolerance. IATL = IT ALWAYS TAKES LONGER! That's Cohu's MO! One thing to be sure, they've reduced their debt to net debt = zero. Cash is over 300 million and they have a breakeven that prevents any large losses with their now much bigger installed owner base of handlers to service (34,500 plus). Stock buybacks are now the next big action to achieve. The cash horde is more the result of a secondary offering that should be bought back, before the trough is over and max earnings can creste a success story that mirrors their mid term business model. 1 billion in sales,49% margins and 180 million free cash flow. If that model gets hit and it lasts for a year or two, Cohu will work itself into a continuous loop of improving earnings as the shares outstanding get reduced in a perpetual manner that will be similar to what AMAT< LRCX< and KLAC have enjoyed, nit to mention very strong price appreciation, and dare I say it a dividend. Nah must have had too much coffee this morning. <smile> I think bear's got it down, hold with confidence, and buy the dip below 32. Bob
