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Strategies & Market Trends : TRIPLE TRADES -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: yard_man who wrote (3690)	2/13/2024 1:25:35 PM
From: Tweets Boar Hog	2 Recommendations Recommended By accountant Bull RidaH Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4413

You do not want to know. No LOL. This market is one for the record books, to say the least. What with what is going on in the general markets awa the commodities, especially precious metals, is just hard to fathom. Let alone get a solid grip on. Re the general markets, I will just say the breadth has still not been good. I think that is changing and small caps are getting ready to catch up, as the push up continues. I'm playing it that way in any event. But your question was about silver. And we don't want to miss out on what is coming, but right now imo it is going to require more patience. Maybe lots more. Fundamentally we need a bit more data on the dollar, but I think the dollar is in a monster move up still in progress with a ways to go. Dollars are coming home, making US stocks attractive to the foreign markets, awa to us. I right now think the precious metals markets will put in a bottom of all bottoms before the dollar tops. Kind of a repeat of the 2000 top scenario and boom in precious metals that followed. That is what 'my' cycles indicate. Cycles ...... been a journey, started about 1.5 years ago. Initiallly I concentrated on the Hurst boys, and their methods. Not a bad place to start, but well over Xmas I ordered meself some books. Helped some. The Hurst boys are too much Hurst, not flexible enough. The cycle world does not 100 % revolve around Hurst cycles.They at times come into play, but one has to look for cycle(s) within the entity being looked at. And sometimes pretty confusing it is. In my present opinion. I have three dogs in my port, dead money, probably come out of it, but would have never happened if I knew then what I think I know now. I don't buy chit anymore unless the longer term cycles add up. Just ain't worth it for my style. As always probably more curve balls coming. I'll work up a chart on the dollar in a bit, which I right now believe to be the main driver behind a lot of this. Longer term I think a bull of all bulls is brewing in the commodity and precious metal markets. Very bullish NG here, precious metals come later. Gotta bottom first. Repeat of the latter 70's??? The 70's followed the Nam war, and all that money pumping that had occurred to fund that. Been non stop wars and money pumping for years now. US shouldering most of the western side of the money/weapon supply. Just some possible analogues. And longer term rates probably gonna cycle up, with plenty of ups and downs along the way. The long cycle, 72 yrs, has bottomed. Re rates, is hell a coming? stockcharts.com Tweets The Xau. We a while back discussed the TL, well with a strong dollar move today, it broke to the downside. Not good, still a small chance it could arrest. The main cycle appears to be a 7 yr cycle, and about dead on 7 yrs. Just had a major cycle low near end of '23. The gold cycle is a bit less than 8 yrs, maybe about 7.85 yrs. So in the Xau we have this other apparent cycle, intertwined with the ~ 7 yr, that is maybe just a tad less than 8 yrs. The two dominant LT cycles are the 14 yr and 7 yr, not hard to see. And maybe just a tad longer than 14 and 7. Then for the longer term cycles we also see a cycle a bit less than the 8 yr, that intertwines. In the near term a possible 8 yr low about end of this year. Following that we have a 3.5 yr (7/2) low about mid '26. We could bottom on the 8 yr low, but seems unlikely to me. Much higher probability to bottom on the 3.5 yr low, latter part of '26. That is my current thot, with the cycle low in early '30 being a higher low. We look at dollar and silver individually a bit later.