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Biotech / Medical : Vivus: into single digits -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BigKNY3 who wrote (97)	2/17/1998 9:45:00 PM
From: MIKE DUBIS	Respond to of 1016

bigk; I read all those posts. Are any of them at the 10 level?

To: BigKNY3 who wrote (97)	2/17/1998 10:44:00 PM
From: Cacaito	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1016

Mike and BigKNY3, 3% to 5% of viagra patients get the blue vision, even if one takes the lower number, this is plus 3% for Muse. Add the viagra non responders (partially or nothing)and assuming a great viagra response 64%, then 36% viagra failure and only 1/3 of this goes to Muse: 12% Add the cumulative years of use, more blue vision with longer time use, remember that the research patients has taken viagra for as long as 4 weeks, not even months. I will say like another 1% a year (very low number). Add the fear of physicians for patients with multiple drugs (diabetes, heart disease, hypertension,) low number 6% Add the fear of legal problems (to be pick up by physicians, not PFE), low number 1%. Add the improved MuseII in couple of years (or even less), so Muse will claim some of the needle patients, low number 6% Add viagra expanding the market, and PFE publicity efforts (free for Vivus). This will "only" increase volume, not percentage. Add some combination therapy (I do not like this idea, but others do)less say a low 4% viagra or other orals plus Muse. Consider a high 30% overlap among above categories (blue, plus multiple drug use, plus combination, plus improved Muse) so one does not overestimate the Muse users. The total % of Muse users will be: 60% of 33% or a conservative 22% of the ED market. The ED market is 100,000,000 million worldwide (some calculate 150), or 22 million patients for viagra. Assumed that to grow from 500,000 patients to 22 million in 5 years will required a 100% growth per year. Even if one (again)half that it is a 50% growth per year. And the next phase of growth is the MCA plant approval (no, it is not in the price yet)which will increase sales in bulk and immediately (Astra will pay for the drug then they will market it on their own). The subsequent FDA approval will ensure enough drug for the US market (no, it is not in the price yet). BigKNY3, if one agrees with Asensio (a viagra backer)who claims the worldwide market is overestimated 5 to 10 times then one should definitely be a short a la Mike Dubis.