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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sean Collett who wrote (75230)	3/5/2024 5:06:28 PM
From: Elroy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78753

Is this all from the restatements, or where do you see this news?

To: Sean Collett who wrote (75230)	3/5/2024 6:29:40 PM
From: Harshu Vyas	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78753

My brief take - firstly, "inventory shortfall of $8-9m." Management made out the situation to be much worse than reality. More like $4.5m. I suspect management wanted to do this for themselves more than for shareholders to get a clear picture of exactly where they're at. (Perhaps ex-management weren't crooks and were just plain stupid.) They said that the 10K could also be delayed. I wonder, what else needs to be disclosed? At this point, I doubt it can be about the accounts themselves. Maybe some compliance stuff? Secondly, cash didn't increase. You have to account for that $171m marketable investment (on top of $146m cash). As of Q3, they have $180m cash TOTAL. And it's likely to be closer to $100m by now by my estimates. That's my expectation for Q1 24. (As of Q4, cash was about $143m. Given the last 8k for Q3, it was bang on so I'm assuming that's the same here.) Not surprised they're terminating their Jabil contract. Harris already said they going to slow AviClear down and wait for demand to show itself. Previous management were foolishly chasing revenues. Fact of the matter is the more I read, the more convinced I become AviClear is a pretty damn good product. When I fist invested, my thesis was so long as AviClear worked well enough, it'd be an ok investment even if it was only a break-even business. It's now looking much better than when I first invested: Before and After Acne Laser Results You Have to See to Believe (newbeauty.com) Most likely outcome is CEO Harris flips the company but I am not sure how that works right now given declining revenue and capital needed to make AviClear a leader. I thought that, initially. I still agree (kinda) but I think he'll be there for much longer than investors anticipate. He's going to have to improve the business model for anyone to buy it at a fair price and the coming few qtrs will be pants for investors. Plus, any acquirer wants to see a decent track record. That makes it (at minimum) a two-year tenure. I also read somewhere that Cutera are planning to release a new product next year, too, once cash flows stabilise (one product is in the pipeline but R&D is on halt temporarily so they can focus on AviClear). If true, taking a new product to market (successfully) means that he could be here a while. I maintain that this will take a long time to resolve from here. All results this year can be assumed to be a write-off. Anything better than a $70m annual cash-burn is a bonus. Why have I invested so early? Purely to practice my discipline and prove that I can hold a stock for a long time. Also, I can't find much else at stupid cheap valuations! Will look at the actual accounting tomorrow and post my longer thoughts then. It's 11pm here in the UK and my brain is fried. I spent all afternoon writing and planning my college essays. Regression analysis between GDP growth and CO2 emissions. Yuck! Takes the life out of me. >g<